Daniel Kaufman’s Blog

Labor Day Reflections: Work, Change, and What Comes Next

I hope you’re having a great Labor Day weekend with family and friends. For most of my life, Labor Day was just the “last day of summer” — a Monday off before school started and fall got underway. I never thought much about why we have it in the first place. But lately, I’ve been digging deeper into these markers in American life, and this one has a fascinating, and sobering, history.

Labor Day began as a celebration of workers, pushed by unions in the late 1800s. It became a federal holiday in 1894 after a massive strike, the Pullman Strike — shut down train lines from the Midwest to the West Coast. At its peak, 250,000 workers walked off the job, and at least 30 people died in riots in Chicago. Congress’ response was to declare Labor Day a national holiday, giving federal workers a day off.

That’s why we’re grilling in the backyard today.

For decades, unions weren’t just powerful; they shaped the direction of the country. In 1954, more than a third of American workers were union members. Groups like the United Automobile Workers weren’t just fighting for their members’ paychecks, they played a huge role in pushing for Medicare, Medicaid, and the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It was dangerous work, too. Walter Reuther, the legendary head of the UAW, survived being shot at his home and lost the use of his right arm. A year later, his brother was shot and lost an eye. Neither crime was ever solved.

Fast forward to today, and just 9.9% of workers are in unions. Teachers, airline crews, nurses, postal workers, police, and firefighters still have strong representation, but most workers don’t. Unions used to be one of the strongest forces in American politics, but even their rank-and-file members have fractured politically. The Teamsters just announced they’re backing Republicans in swing districts. We’re living in a time of weakening institutions, and labor is no exception.

And here’s the kicker: the conversation is shifting from “how do we protect workers” to “what happens when human labor isn’t needed at all?”

Automation was a flashpoint in last year’s Hollywood writers’ strike and the dockworkers strike, but those are just early warning signs. Almost half of American jobs are either repetitive cognitive or repetitive manual tasks, which makes them prime candidates for AI and automation. I spoke with an executive at a major bank who told me they expect half their workforce to be gone in the next three years because of AI. Jobs like customer service, sales, and marketing analytics, none of them unionized, are all on the chopping block.

I keep asking myself: who’s the Walter Reuther of today? Who’s going to lead workers through this new era? Reuther didn’t just fight for autoworkers; he co-founded Earth Day because he understood how deeply labor issues are connected to everything else. That kind of leadership is hard to find now.

A tech entrepreneur said something to me last week that’s stuck with me: “AI will be the knockout blow to human labor.” It’s chilling, but I think he’s right. We’ve been heading this way for a long time. Our time and energy, the value of being human in the workforce — is becoming more and more marginal.

Maybe the future isn’t about unions in the traditional sense, but about a movement that brings people together across sectors, classes, and politics to redefine what a good life looks like in an age where machines do the bulk of the work. That’s the next big labor question: not how to keep things the way they are, but how to create a future worth living in when human labor isn’t the center of the economy anymore.

Labor Day has always been about honoring workers. Maybe it’s time we start honoring work itself, and imagining what’s next.

Hey everyone, hope the end of summer is treating you well.

I’ve been thinking a lot about where the economy is at right now, and the short version is: it really depends on who you are and where you’re sitting.

I came across a chart recently, that shows how different groups of Americans are spending. The top 20% by income are still spending pretty freely, but the bottom 80% have pulled back, basically only keeping up with inflation. Economists call this a “K-shaped economy”—one group going up, the other going down, like the arms of the letter K.

Who’s in that top 20%? Generally, people who are older, own stocks and real estate, and don’t depend as much on a single paycheck. Their homes and investments have appreciated, so they feel comfortable spending. The bottom 80%? That’s the vast majority of Americans, living paycheck to paycheck, dealing with higher costs, less job security, and rising risks of layoffs.

Some of the signs aren’t pretty. Loan delinquencies are ticking up. Consumer confidence is slipping. Vegas visitor numbers dropped over 11% in June, and foreign tourism is falling too, which means less money flowing into places like New York, California, and Las Vegas. On top of that, tariffs are raising costs, and AI is shaking up the job market. One stat that really stuck with me: 70-year-olds are now more likely to buy a home than 35-year-olds. That doesn’t feel right.

On the flip side, the stock market has been strong, and big tech companies are pouring trillions into AI and data centers. For shareholders, that’s a good thing. For workers, not so much, many companies are quietly cutting headcount while boosting profits. It’s a weird split: what’s good for Wall Street isn’t necessarily good for Main Street.

That’s really the heart of this K-shaped economy—depending on where you sit, your experience of “how things are going” can look totally different. Some economists talk about a future of abundance if AI drives productivity high enough. I even heard Geoffrey Hinton (the “godfather of AI”) say we should teach AI maternal instincts so it takes care of us—yikes. My own view: abundance sounds great, but it doesn’t mean much if most people aren’t feeling it. A more equal society makes life better for everyone.

The big question is: can we actually share the gains when they come? Right now, it doesn’t look like it.

Raising Awesome Humans in an AI World

The other day, I was talking to an analyst friend who’s convinced that AI is going to wipe out jobs like his.

He’s already making moves, he opened a small independent bookstore, and his kids are running the front counter, helping customers find their next great read, organizing events, and learning how to manage inventory. They’re getting a hands-on education in customer service, marketing, and what it takes to keep a business alive in a tough market.

I think he’s onto something. I’ve been saying for a while that AI is going to eat jobs — not in some far-off sci-fi way, but soon. And the latest jobs report makes me wonder if “soon” might be “right now.”

Then I came across a study by journalist John Burn-Murdoch that floored me. He looked at personality shifts across generations, and the results were… not encouraging:

• Conscientiousness (discipline, reliability) and agreeableness (getting along with others) have dropped sharply among young people.

• Extroversion is down for everyone, which helps explain why we’re all going out less.

• Neuroticism (anxiety, emotional volatility) is way up.

The timing points to smartphones and social media as the culprits. And here’s the kicker — these traits matter a lot. Personality is actually a better predictor of life outcomes than intelligence or where you grew up. If you’re dependable and steady, you’re more likely to have a lasting career, a lasting marriage, and a longer life. If you’re anxious, moody, and easily thrown off track, you’re in for a rougher ride.

When people ask me, “What should my kid study so they’ll have a secure job?” my answer is: it’s less about the subject and more about who they are. Especially in the AI era, resilience, discipline, and character matter more than memorizing the perfect technical skill that might be automated in five years.

When I was a kid, you might learn that through a paper route or a lemonade stand. My first job was as a cashier at the local grocery store. In college, I was a ski lift operator. Those jobs taught me how to deal with customers, handle rejection, ask for help (and when not to), work under pressure, and understand just how hard it is to make $40.

Today, our kids are growing up in a world where they spend more time indoors, less time working, and less time interacting with people outside their immediate circle. That’s a problem — because those interactions are the training ground for life.

Team sports can teach it. So can theatre, music, volunteering, faith communities, jobs, or starting a business. Anything that forces you to show up, work with others, deal with setbacks, and try again is gold.

Here’s the silver lining: in a world where conscientiousness and resilience are in short supply, the kids who do have them are going to stand out. They’ll have more opportunities than ever.

The future job market is unpredictable, but the traits that drive success are timeless. The best thing we can do for the next generation? Raise great human beings who can adapt, build, and keep going when things change.

A good first step? Put the phone down.

The Jobs Report Was Ugly — And AI Is About to Make It Worse

Hey everyone, hope your summer is going well and that you’re getting some time outside before it all turns to back-to-school and work chaos.

I wanted to share a few thoughts that have been bouncing around in my head after this past week’s jobs report. To put it bluntly, it was brutal. May and June job growth numbers were revised down by 258,000. July came in far below expectations with just 73,000 jobs created. Even worse, three-quarters of those were in one field: health care. As one analyst put it, “The labor market is deteriorating quickly.”

And that’s not a throwaway line. It was the weakest 3-month job creation stretch since COVID.

The markets took a hit. President Trump, clearly frustrated, responded by firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. I doubt that’ll fix anything.

So what’s going on?

There’s a lot at play, tariffs, reshoring, inflation, shifting global dynamics, but I want to talk about what I think is the deeper story: AI and the white-collar job collapse already in motion.

When the Tech Execs Start Getting Nervous…

I had dinner recently with a CEO of ProTech Company. We were talking shop, and he told me, “We just cut almost 20% of our team. Chances are we’re going to do it again soon. We’re finding real efficiencies with AI. And my daughter? She’s in college, watching this happen in real time, and she’s already decided she’s not going into tech.”

He paused and added, “Honestly, I don’t know what her classmates are going to do.”

That stuck with me.

My attorney told me something similar: “AI can draft a motion in an hour that used to take a first-year associate a week. And it’s better.” Meanwhile, law school applications are surging 21% this year. People are rushing to what they think is a safe, stable profession, but it might not be safe at all.

And it’s not just lawyers or tech workers. A professor at UVM told me they’ve had alumni reaching out, still unemployed, driving Uber just to get by. Recent Federal Reserve data backs this up: the unemployment rate for college-educated men is now the same as for those without a degree. That’s… not supposed to happen.

The College Premium Is Fading

Remember when going to college was the guaranteed path to stability? That narrative is crumbling. AI is already taking jobs that used to be considered secure, customer service, entry-level sales, marketing analysts, junior attorneys, even management analysts. According to Microsoft, those four job categories alone make up 5.6 million roles, most of them held by recent grads.

You can easily imagine half of them gone in the next few years.

Meanwhile, jobs that are the least automatable?

• Dredge operators • Maids and housekeepers • Phlebotomists • Roofers • HVAC repair • Nursing assistants

Not exactly what college career counselors are pitching. But the market doesn’t care about your résumé. It cares about what can’t be replaced by software.

So Where Do We Go From Here?

I’m not trying to be alarmist, I’m trying to be honest.

This shift is real. Just like robotics hit factories over the past 30 years, AI is now hitting offices. And it’s moving much faster. One expert pointed out that AI models are doubling in capability every seven months. That’s exponential acceleration. Even I’m shocked at the pace.

So what do we do?

First, we have to acknowledge what’s happening. This isn’t theoretical anymore. It’s showing up in jobs data.

Second, we need to help the next generation rethink their path. I’m not telling every kid to become a roofer. But I am saying this: If someone you know has a passion for something real, tangible, and needed, something that doesn’t live in a spreadsheet or rely on sitting in front of a screen all day—they should go for it.

Health care is one bright spot. With an aging population and a massive shortage of nurses and aides, that demand isn’t going anywhere soon. But even there, I’m cautious: those jobs are often government-funded, and the budget outlook is anything but generous.

The reality is, we may all need to get a little more hands-on, a little more resourceful, and a little more resilient.

Final Thought

August 1, 2025 may go down as the moment when AI’s impact on the labor market became undeniable. The hard truth is that a lot of good people with good degrees are going to struggle to find meaningful work unless we start preparing now, as individuals, as families, and as a country.

We have to retrain, rethink, and rebuild how we approach jobs and opportunity in this next chapter.

So no, I’m not thrilled about this trend. But I’d rather call it what it is than pretend it’s not happening.

Stay smart, stay grounded, and if you can, get good with a wrench.

– Daniel

Hardship’s Hiding in Plain Sight

A friend called me last week. Smart guy. Thoughtful. The kind of person I’d go to for advice if I were stuck professionally. Out of nowhere, he tells me he lost his job.

He’s not alone.

Another old friend has been piecing together freelance work for months, some paid, some not. A guy I know in banking got laid off and is now deep into interviews with startups, fully expecting to take a pay cut. And one friend hasn’t been laid off — but there’s a hiring freeze and no raise in sight, even as the cost of everything inches up.

If it feels like this is happening a lot lately, that’s because it is. And maybe it’s an age thing — most of the people I’m hearing this from are in their late 40s and 50s. Careers start to shift fast at this stage. But it’s also the industries: media, tech, finance. A lot of places are cutting back. Quietly.

AI is playing a big role in all this. One founder put it bluntly: “We’re not laying people off, we’re just not hiring them — because AI is doing the work we used to give junior staff.” No headlines. No drama. Just… the job never gets posted. For the person who might have had that job, that’s the same outcome.

A professor I know told me some of his former students — highly qualified grads from great programs — are calling him, saying they can’t find work. Some are driving Ubers. Meanwhile, I took a Waymo robotaxi in LA recently, and… it was better. Calmer, quieter, cheaper. I’ve used it several times since. Multiply that by thousands of rides across Phoenix, SF, LA, Atlanta — it adds up. Drivers are losing work, and the disruption’s only just starting.

It’s not just tech jobs or Uber drivers or unlucky executives. The cracks are spreading. This is all happening in a country where 60% of people already can’t afford a decent standard of living. So when you look around and ask, “Who’s actually doing well right now?” — it’s not always obvious.

Too much of what we see is filtered. News cycles focused on efficiency, social media full of people trying to look successful — even when they’re barely holding it together. The ones doing well are often real, but they’re also outliers. Or just not telling the whole story.

So how do you really get a read on things? You look at your own life. Is your stress up? Your costs? Then you’re not alone. Listen to the people around you. If you open up a bit, you’ll be surprised how many people are facing the same invisible pressure.

You can also look at the data — credit card delinquencies are near record highs. One in five job seekers has been looking for 10 months or more. The surface looks calm. But underneath? There’s a current pulling a lot of people sideways.

If you’re in a good spot, take a breath and be grateful for it. And if you can help someone else out — do it. Whether that’s money, time, or just checking in, it matters.

And if you’re not in a good spot? Please know you’re not the only one. A lot of people are quietly treading water, and some are barely staying afloat. We’re all figuring this out together, and we’ll keep looking for ways to support one another — even if it feels far off.

Wishing everyone a calm rest of the summer. There’s more struggle out there than we see — so take care of each other and try not to assume the surface tells the full story. It rarely does.

749 Miles. One Charge. No, That’s Not a Typo.

I’ll be honest—when I first saw the number 749 miles on a single EV charge, I thought someone fat-fingered a press release.

But nope. It’s real.

Lucid Motors just shattered the Guinness World Record for the longest distance traveled on a single battery charge. One of their Air Grand Touring models cruised a jaw-dropping 749 miles from St. Moritz, Switzerland to Munich, Germany—all on one charge, no pit stops, no drama.

To put it in perspective, most electric vehicles tap out somewhere between 200 and 300 miles. Even Tesla’s longest-range Model S isn’t playing in this league.

Now, to be fair, this wasn’t your average drive to Trader Joe’s. The route included alpine switchbacks and European connector roads—which makes the feat even more impressive. And yes, the car starts at a cool $110,000, so we’re still in “early adopter with great taste” territory here.

What makes this interesting (besides the sheer absurdity of the range) is how fast the EV arms race is accelerating. Just last month, Mercedes-Benz was popping champagne after logging 649 miles. Lucid barely let the cork hit the floor.

As a real estate guy who spends a lot of time thinking about infrastructure, mobility, and what the future feels like—I love moments like this. Because it’s not just about cars. It’s about design, engineering, energy systems, and how we move through space. And increasingly, how we live and work is going to be shaped by tech like this.

Lucid’s not just building a car. They’re reframing what’s possible.

And if your community, project, or investment strategy isn’t thinking 749 miles ahead, you might already be behind.

Navigating Property Taxes in 2025: Strategic Insights for Real Estate Professionals

Property taxes remain a pivotal factor influencing real estate decisions across the United States. As we progress through 2025, understanding the evolving landscape of property tax rates is essential for real estate professionals aiming to guide clients effectively and identify promising investment opportunities.

Current Trends in Property Tax Rates

Recent data indicates significant variations in property tax rates across states:

Highest Effective Property

Tax Rates:

• New Jersey: 2.23% • Illinois: 2.07% • Connecticut: 1.92% • New York: 1.60% • New Hampshire: 1.89%

Lowest Effective Property

Tax Rates:

• Hawaii: 0.27% • Alabama: 0.38% • Colorado: 0.49% • Nevada: 0.50% • South Carolina: 0.51%

These disparities underscore the importance of location-specific tax considerations in real estate planning.

Implications for Real Estate Development

High property taxes can deter potential buyers and investors, affecting market dynamics:

Investor Caution: Elevated taxes may reduce net returns, prompting investors to seek markets with more favorable tax environments.

Buyer Affordability: Higher taxes increase the overall cost of homeownership, potentially limiting buyer pools in certain regions.

Conversely, areas with lower property taxes can attract both investors and buyers seeking affordability and better returns.

Promising Regions for Real Estate Opportunities

Considering property tax rates alongside other factors such as economic growth, population trends, and housing demand, the following regions present compelling opportunities:

Alabama:

Effective Property Tax Rate: 0.38% Notable for its low tax burden and growing urban centers like Huntsville and Birmingham.

Nevada:

Effective Property Tax Rate: 0.50% Cities like Las Vegas and Reno are experiencing population growth and economic diversification.

South Carolina:

Effective Property Tax Rate: 0.51% Charleston and Greenville are attracting businesses and new residents, fueling housing demand.

Texas:

While Texas has higher property tax rates (around 1.60% to 1.80%), it compensates with no state income tax and robust job growth in cities like Austin and Dallas.

Strategic Recommendations for Real Estate Professionals

1. Conduct Comprehensive Market Analyses:

Evaluate property tax implications alongside other economic indicators to identify optimal investment locations.

1. Educate Clients:

Provide clients with detailed information on how property taxes affect overall affordability and long-term investment returns.

1. Monitor Legislative Changes:

Stay informed about potential tax reforms or policy shifts that could impact property tax rates and real estate markets.

1. Diversify Investment Portfolios:

Consider a mix of properties in both low and moderate tax regions to balance risk and return.

By staying attuned to the nuances of property tax landscapes and integrating this knowledge into strategic planning, real estate professionals can better navigate the market and capitalize on emerging opportunities in 2025 and beyond.

What Is Project 2025, Really? A Straightforward Look

You’ve probably heard about Project 2025 floating around the news or on social media. Maybe you’ve caught a few headlines, maybe you’ve heard it’s tied to Trump, or maybe you’re wondering if it’s just another political buzzword.

I just read an early copy of a new book called “The Project: How Project 2025 is Reshaping America” by David A. Graham, and it lays it all out in plain English—and it’s honestly eye-opening.

Here’s the short version:

Project 2025 is a 900-page document (yes, 900 pages) put together by the Heritage Foundation, a big conservative think tank that’s been around for decades. It was written by about 70 different authors, many of whom worked directly in the first Trump administration—including four at the Cabinet level.

If you remember, Trump tried to distance himself from Project 2025 during his campaign, saying he didn’t know much about it.

David’s take? That’s a stretch. After Trump won, he appointed a lot of the people involved with Project 2025 into key government positions—like border czar, CIA director, and head of the Office of Management and Budget. Bloomberg even reported that 37 out of Trump’s first 47 executive actions matched recommendations from Project 2025.

So what is it actually about?

David explains that Project 2025 is part game plan, part job board, part political bootcamp.

• It lays out policy goals.

• It builds a huge database of potential hires.

• It trains people to step into government jobs.

• And it gives Trump (or any other conservative president) a ready-to-go roadmap to reshape government from day one.

In Trump’s first term, one of his biggest problems was staffing—he didn’t have enough loyalists ready to take over the government agencies. Project 2025’s goal is to fix that: stack the system with “true believers” who won’t get in the way.

There’s a saying in politics: Personnel is policy. This time, they want to make sure they have both locked down before they even show up.

What’s in the Agenda?

The big idea behind Project 2025 is to dramatically expand the power of the president. Here’s what they want to do:

• Fire civil servants at will (even career professionals who are supposed to be nonpartisan)

• Take political control over agencies like the Justice Department, FCC, and SEC

• Pull more power away from Congress and give it directly to the executive branch

And if they get that control, what’s next?

Here’s a quick rundown of their policy goals:

• Families: Ban abortion nationwide; promote a traditional 1950s-style household where men work and women stay home.

• Immigration: Cut back sharply on legal immigration (student visas, work visas, H-1Bs—you name it).

• Education: Shut down the Department of Education and push all funding and decision-making to the states.

• Taxes: Cut taxes for the super wealthy and corporations; introduce a national consumption tax (which tends to hurt lower- and middle-income families the most).

• Social Safety Net: Shrink federal aid programs and shift the responsibility for helping the poor to churches and charities.

• The Federal Reserve: They’re not fans. They want major changes—or possibly to sideline it altogether.

On trade policy, the document is weirdly split: some parts argue for tariffs and protectionism, others for free trade. (Basically, they couldn’t agree.)

Why It Matters

David makes a really important point: The authors of Project 2025 see government as a problem—so their solution is to concentrate even more power into the hands of one person.

If they think government agencies have been “politicized,” their answer isn’t to fix them—it’s to politicize them even more, just with their own people.

For many of them, Trump is simply the vehicle to get their agenda done. Whether he agrees with every point or not, they have a full-blown vision ready to go.

And even the changes they’re making behind the scenes right now—changing how government jobs work, rewriting the rules—could shape our country for decades to come, no matter who’s in charge later.

Final Thought

Look, ideologues don’t usually make great leaders. When the goal is total control rather than collaboration, things tend to get ugly fast. Whether you lean left, right, or somewhere in between, it’s worth understanding what’s happening—not just the headlines, but the bigger play underneath.

David’s new book gives a clear window into what Project 2025 is—and why it could change the country in a big way.

It’s something we all need to keep an eye on.

Tariff Tantrums, Supply Chain Scrambles, and the Basement Hoarder Economy

Did you buy a phone last week—just in case? If so, you’re not alone. Apparently, it’s not just paranoid consumers stocking up to beat tariffs. Corporate America is doing the same thing, just with more forklifts and fewer Amazon boxes.

I spoke to a large investor friend of mine, and what he shared painted a fascinating (and slightly chaotic) picture of what’s going on behind the scenes. “My companies pulled all of their orders forward and bought everything they could for the rest of the year to avoid the tariffs,” he said. “One even sent a convoy of trucks to Mexico and packed every last pallet they could find.”

So yes, Q2 might look okay on paper. But here’s the problem: if you move all your demand into one quarter, what happens in Q3 and Q4? You guessed it—crickets.

That same investor dropped a couple more bombshells:

1. Some companies are moving their headquarters out of the U.S. altogether. Hello, Europe.

2. It’s getting harder to attract international talent to the U.S. thanks to the uncertainty.

3. Businesses are caught in limbo, not knowing if they should raise prices to offset rising costs… or hold the line and eat it, praying the tariffs vanish before the next shipment arrives.

This kind of unpredictability doesn’t just hit bottom lines—it breaks planning models. Margins get squeezed, layoffs start creeping in, or prices go up and consumers tighten their wallets. Either way, the math gets ugly.

Another twist? Canadians—and apparently many Europeans—are boycotting U.S. destinations out of patriotism or protest. That spells trouble for small businesses near the border and big tourist cities alike. Tourism, meet tariffs.

So what’s everyone doing about it?

Stockpiling.

Seriously. People and companies alike are hoarding supplies, ordering in bulk, and stashing inventory like it’s Y2K all over again. Think pallets in the warehouse. Or canned goods in the basement. It’s a “just-in-case” economy now.

The real kicker? The data’s not going to catch up for a while. With all this front-loaded demand, Q2 will look deceptively strong. But give it until mid-summer—and that artificial sugar high starts to wear off.

As economist Noah Smith put it, “These tariffs are economic mismanagement of the highest order.”

Noah’s biggest worry? Stagflation. That dreaded combo of rising prices and a sluggish economy. And he’s not alone. A ton of federal debt is about to come due in the next year. With interest rates high, refinancing gets expensive fast. That could eat up the federal budget and crowd out other spending, making the deficit balloon.

Naturally, Trump’s response is to call for Jerome Powell’s job. The irony? The Fed’s job is to manage inflation—which is being worsened by… tariffs.

It’s a tightrope act with fire on both sides. Noah made an ominous point: the U.S. may be entering territory only Japan has navigated before, where debt service becomes a national concern. But unlike Japan, U.S. savers aren’t as patriotic. If they start moving money out of U.S. assets, we’re in a whole new world of hurt.

Here’s where I land: we’re living through a strange new chapter of economic history, written in all-caps by the guy in the red hat. The ripple effects are already here—hoarding, relocation, talent loss, volatility. The deeper consequences? They’ll hit in about 90 days.

So buckle up. Or better yet, stock up.

Confidence Is Contagious—And So Is Fear

What a strange, unsettling moment in American life.

One minute, the President launches a trade war. The next, he walks it back. But the thing about instability is—it doesn’t really go away just because someone says, never mind. The damage is already done.

I’ve been in conversations all week with people trying to make sense of what’s happening. Consumer confidence has tanked. Tourism is slowing. The dollar isn’t as attractive as it used to be. Companies are pulling back, credit card delinquencies are ticking up, and the odds of a recession? Rising fast.

The CEO of KB Home told me flat out this week: “Even with the temporary pause, the 10% blanket tariffs—especially those targeting China—are going to suppress billions in economic activity every month. I think there’s a false sense of relief out there. What remains is still incredibly disruptive. And let’s be honest—negotiating comprehensive trade agreements in 90 days isn’t realistic. That uncertainty is already impacting how companies plan and invest.”

And that’s the word I keep coming back to: uncertainty.

It’s not just about markets or interest rates—it’s in the air. A friend of mine lost his job last week. Another saw investors pull out of a deal. People are freezing up. Not because they’re panicking, but because they’re unsure. Do I hire? Do I grow? Or do I hunker down?

And that’s how a slowdown begins. Enough people pulling back creates a ripple that turns into a wave. It doesn’t take much.

This is what I think a lot of policymakers—and frankly, many leaders—miss. Confidence is delicate. It doesn’t respond well to chaos. People watch each other. And when you start seeing your neighbor postpone that project or your friend get laid off, it changes your own behavior. You don’t want to be the last one to act.

The last couple of weeks haven’t exactly inspired confidence. The spin, the justifications, the backpedaling—it’s been painful to watch. Leadership matters. And right now, we’re all paying the price for a deficit of it.

I know people are nervous. Some of you watched your retirement accounts shrink. Some of you are wondering if your job—or your business—is safe. And while I won’t pretend to have a crystal ball, I am getting some early signals most people don’t see.

And I’ll tell you this: the waters ahead still look rough.

We’ve never had a recession in the age of AI. And when the next one hits, companies are going to look real hard at what they can automate. Not next year—right away.

That’s where we’re heading. The question is: are you prepared?

If you’ve got savings you’ll need in the next few years, consider setting that aside. You don’t need to win the market right now. You need peace of mind. You need clarity. That’s what will help you sleep at night and stay level-headed.

There will be opportunities ahead. Real ones. But you have to make it there first.

So hang tight. Be smart. And remember—confidence, just like fear, is contagious. Let’s try to spread the right one.