2020 has been a year to remember. With the current pandemic still raging through the headlines, as well as the uncertainty regarding the future of major economies across the globe, things have certainly been rather hectic.
With all of that going on (and still going on as of writing this) I decided to take a break from social media, as well as taking a break from writing here. While not for everyone, I found it refreshing to take a step back from the constant barrage of information.
There was, however, a side effect.
Shortly before deciding to take a break, I posted my thoughts on the news that Ripple was changing its ODL strategy. While my thoughts on the manner were fairly optimistic at the time, during my break I started to look at that news (as well as the then-current state of crypto) with a more critical eye. It was there that I started to grow more critical of XRP, as well as the entire crypto market.
With all that being said, I decided to share those thoughts with you in today's article. It should be noted that, while I've grown more critical of XRP (and I go more in depth on this below) I have also gained more optimism with it as a whole.
The Storm Emerges. A Seed is Planted.
It's astounding to me how external factors impact our mentality on things. A negative review of a film can impact our perception of it, even after having seen it. Or positive feedback on a product you plan on buying can push you towards buying it, without having handled it physically.
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of those external factors. It should be noted that this applies differently for different people. Just because I can point towards the pandemic and call it a major external factor towards my mentality towards things, others may feel otherwise. It's easy to single out a lone factor and call it a day, not taking into account the countless factors that may be in play as well.
As a result, my thoughts on this are highly biased due to the fact that we all live different lives. As such, keeping this bias in mind will be important while reading through this. What I'm writing is not factual, but rather anecdotal, and I feel this is an important distinction to make, especially when considering the sensitivity of speaking negatively towards a subject that is highly divisive. In this case, that subject is XRP.
While I can only assume that most of you reading this felt a bit of unease during the beginning of the pandemic, I can also only assume that most of you were not too bothered by it. After all, humanity as a whole has fought through far greater challenges in the past, so it would make sense that we would get through this with minor damage.
During the early stages of the pandemic, I found myself with this mindset as well. Even though I felt that unease, for the most part I knew we'd be fine. The road ahead might be messy, sure, but for the most part I knew we'd come out the other end, stronger and more aware compared to our past selves.
And I still feel this way. While the pandemic has ravaged the globe, and countless lives have been lost, I still believe that things will work out in the end. We won't get there unscathed, but we'll get there nonetheless.
It wasn't until my mind shifted focus towards crypto were I began to feel more grim about the future of cryptocurrencies as a whole, specifically XRP.
To point out the obvious, this blog is focused strongly on XRP. While I'm interested and follow countless other cryptocurrencies, XRP has remained my primary focus since the beginning. It's what peaked my interest in crypto when I first started out, and this platform will remain dedicated towards it.
Going back on track, this shift in mindset towards XRP came as a surprise. While I've always tried to keep an open mind with things in general, I've always tried to be extra careful when it came to investments. As the oft-repeated saying goes, emotional investing is a big no-no. It can lead to irrational decisions that, at the heat of the moment, may not seem so irrational. This can then lead to severe losses. And while many of us are here to be a part of the future of currencies, it's safe to assume that, at the core, many of us are here for the potential of financial gain.
On that last note, it's no secret that the price of XRP has remained relatively stagnant. It doesn't need to be said that this obviously leads to frustration. Again, at the core of it all, we're here for the potential financial gains. When these expectations are not meant, its natural to feel frustrated. And considering that these expectations are tied to our personal finances, there's a high probability that the resulting frustration leads to stress, although this will differ between individuals and their financial situation.
So while the price movement of XRP has been rather lackluster, I, like many others, had no problem with this. I believed in the future success of the technology (and to be clear, I still do) and had no issue waiting for it to happen.
But during this break, my thoughts on the success of crypto, specifically XRP, started to diminish dramatically.
Worry and Uncertainty. The Seed Begins to Grow.
I was taken aback when these doubts took hold. As I've stated before, I've always tried to view cryptocurrencies with a critical eye, taking in both sides of the argument and forming my own conclusions based on what information I had on had. And while doubt has risen countless times during my short time in crypto, never had I experienced it to such a degree.
As one does when confronted with a sudden shift in belief, I pushed back. Frantically, I tried convincing myself that this doubt was not only irrational, but outright invalid. Whenever the thought of this doubt arose in my mind, I'd push it back, not wanting to accept the fact that I was experiencing this doubt.
Many will point out that this feeling of doubt, whether true or not, began and grew due to emotional frustration. And while I was aware of this fact at the time, I'd be lying to you if I said that I took this information and made use of it to, at the very least, try and understand why I was feeling it.
Sadly, that was not the case.
Instead, what began as a small whisper of uncertainty mutated into constant shouting. A restless reminder of doubt, of the choice I had made, of the time I had spent towards it.
And let's not forget about the pandemic and economical uncertainty that was looming across the globe. When I look back, I'm stunned by the mentality that I carried. I don't consider myself a saint, and have accepted and learned from my mistakes in the pasts. But I've always considered myself as a fairly selfless person, and as I've grown over the years I have always tried to spot my selfish acts and fix them. I have always held the belief that selfishness, at its core, does more damage than good. And while pure selflessness is an impossibility, I firmly believe that one should strive to improve that aspect in their lives.
But things took a turn during the aforementioned period. Humanity as a whole is in distress. Deaths were being logged daily, only increasing in size. Millions were losing their jobs that they depended on to survive.
And there I was, safely tucked away at home. Fortunate enough to be able to work from home. Fortunate to have savings in place.
And there I was, losing sleep over XRP. Constantly panicking over whether or not I had made the right decision in trusting crypto.
In hindsight, this behavior disgusts me. I'm not lost on the fact that, as stated before, different people in different situations will experience these sorts of global events differently. It's easy and valid for one to rationalize this type of behavior based on that mindset. But as cheesy as it sounds, I could not in good conscious validate said behavior. To this day, it hurts me to think back on the intense selfishness. And this incessant worry was directed towards the validity and credence of a digital coin, not it's monetary value. I was losing sleep over whether or not my trust in this digital coin was a mistake.
Specifically, I doubted my belief that XRP, and in turn crypto as a whole, was an area worth pursuing at all. On its surface, this question of whether or not a personal belief is correct seems like a typical, well-rounded examination. And to a certain extent, this claim can be considered as reasonably sound.
In the early stages of doubt, I did what I normally do in such situations: take that internal conflict, accept its existence, examine the differing sides, and try to arrive at a logical conclusion.
This is something that I have applied to my daily life, and is not exclusive to cryptocurrencies. And, anecdotally, it has served me well. When internal clashing of ideas and beliefs occur, I've found that taking a step back and making an effort to examine all of these clashing ideas, especially the ones that are causing the most amount of distress. Even though odds are you'll automatically revert back to the original, more “pleasant” idea, I feel that just taking the time to try and understand the internal issue can add incredible value to our personal understanding of our own decision making. This gives us the possibility for improved decision making in the future. It can be unpleasant at times, but the mere fact that confronting these questions has the potential for bettering oneself is the main reason why I advocate for it in daily life.
Denial and Reluctance. The Roots Burrow into the Soil.
Alas, my doubt surrounding XRP and its potential future continued to grow. Attempts were constantly made to try and quell this feeling, to try and take a step back and examine the conflict of interest.
Part of me pushed this doubt away, with the explanation being that I can't doubt its future. That I had spent too much time and effort into this idea that destroying it would not only be an admittance of defeat, but also the realization of potentially wasted time. That giving up on this potential future not only removes potential financial success, but also removes another voice speaking towards a better, fairer financial future for everyone involved.
The other part of me, however, fought back. Telling me that the destruction of this ideal future was inevitable. That I was blinded by sheer greed, and that said greed was the driving force towards a future that would never meet with reality. That, despite seemingly good intentions, an actual change would remain indefinitely futile. That it was silly to put all this time and hope into something that had not provided concrete evidence of its future use.
Overwhelmed with both sides taking a consistent and chaotic hold, I began to just dismiss both arguments. Instead of challenging either side, I turned my back on the entire issue. Stuck in a sort of limbo, I watched from the sidelines as ideas and beliefs crashed against one another, not willing to step in and confront them due to a fear of not knowing what I would find. Ignorance would become a safe haven, a layer of protection against the unknown.
Blissful Ignorance. A Ghostly Sapling Sprouts.
Modern society has advanced to such a degree that information has become accessible to nearly every single human being on the planet. It's so commonplace that it has ingrained itself into our lives, turning itself into a tool that is with us, constantly waiting in the background, ready to serve anyone and everyone.
It's hard to think of a time where a vast, instantaneous source of information was something most couldn't even dream about. The concept of the Internet is a relatively new one, and yet its a concept that most of us have accepted with little fanfare. Knowledge accumulated over centuries is, quite literally, seconds away from you. The accumulative effort of humanity and its findings spanning a millennia has been condensed into a web that covers the globe in its entirety. We have the entire written history of mankind waiting for us behind little slabs of glass, with more information being added to this network with every passing second.
When it comes to daily life, the need for memorization and learning of information has largely been left behind due to a lack of necessity. Many deem this aspect of the Internet as having a negative impact on future generations, with the assumption being that it will lead to less overall intelligence. I can't speak on the validity of this claim, and have no intention nor am I qualified to even make such a claim.
Instead, all I can offer is my own uneducated point of view on the subject, based purely on my own personal experience and personal bias.
It's safe to say that situations where the fear of the unknown presents itself, it can lead us to lock down any previous desire we had to reveal it. It should be noted that, even though I'm focusing specifically on conflict of belief regarding a digital currency, there are other far more valid situations where this level of internal conflict would make far greater sense. And that in itself is largely what caught my attention.
How is it remotely possible that this conflict, the conflict of whether or not a digital asset is “right” or “wrong”, manifest itself in a world where there are countless other priorities that sit far higher? How is it possible that these internal conflicts lead to external ones?
We get defensive, and we double down. It becomes an instinctual habit, where we no longer debate for or against an idea and/or belief, but rather proclaim a self-serving argument that only pushes us back towards our side. It becomes internal reassurance, a constant cycle of personal bias feeding itself, growing stronger only with time.
With that in mind, let's shift our focus back towards XRP and crypto.
While in this “limbo”, the comfort I got from not knowing the answer to the internal conflict was a fleeting moment. In a way, that was enough. But this “peace” of purposefully remaining in the dark flickered on and off, with each disappearance more painful than the last. In a way, the constant light pressure provided a form of pause, and once this pressure became the new “normal”, I could then look back at the burning question more openly. With a pseudo-clear mindset, the task became less heavy.
Confrontation. A Perpetual Tree.
After days of delay, I take both sides and try to understand them. It's easy to fall back on the side you want to agree with, but understanding of both arguments is needed to form a cohesive conclusion.
Acceptance of the negatives is hard, but necessary. The negatives won't always win, and neither will the positives. A sense of defeat is felt, and is a valid sensation. But at the end of the day, a greater understanding of the situation is nothing but a positive thing.
We're living through interesting times. Experiences regarding current global events will be different. So will be the experiences you have individually regarding cryptocurrencies. Experiences that are anchored in beliefs to these cryptocurrencies will differ as well.
There is no definitive “right” or “wrong” when it comes to those beliefs. That is a question that can only be answered by each individual separately.
Conclusion
While the general tone of this article leans towards a more grim outlook on the future of XRP, I want to clarify that my thoughts remain positive for XRP, as well as cryptocurrencies as a whole. I've grown more critical during this period of time, and in turn have come to the realization that very real problems exist within this space.
As an example, Ripple changing its ODL strategy is one area where conflict may arise in an individual who holds the idea that ODL is the path to success for XRP. (Note that parallels can be drawn from countless other cryptocurrencies, XRP being the one I'm most familiar with).
The arguments made both in favor and against the ODL change are easily made. Both are polarizing to the opposite side, and yet both hold equal value due to there not being enough information to support either argument. A lack of information, however, does not merit an outright dismissal for an argument.
The future of XRP, cryptocurrencies, and all that surrounds it is unknown. Perhaps we are in the “right”, or perhaps we end up in the “wrong”. Or maybe there is no “right” or “wrong”, and all we are left with is a middle-ground. Not an outright denial of the existence of a “right” or “wrong”, but rather a lack of information for an objective decision.
Stay safe out there, and thanks for reading.
Images used in this article are provided through Unsplash
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