• Revisiting Charlie Blackmon’s Contract
The Rockies are paying him a lot of money in 2023, but is it well spent?
Oct 28, 2022
Let’s start with the money because, as Dick Monfort likes to remind fans, the Rockies are a small-market team that operates within a budget. (We’ll save whether the Rockies actually are a small-market team for another day.)
According to Spotrac, here are the players making $9 million or more in 2023:
Source: Spotrac
I want to focus on Charlie Blackmon, the Rockies’ 36-year-old DH/right fielder, who will be the second-highest paid player on the payroll. That seems like a lot to pay a player in the twilight of his career, which raises a question: Is Charlie Blackmon worth that much money in 2023?
The Numbers
Here’s Blackmon’s 12-season career as shown by Baseball Reference:
Source: Baseball Reference
Blackmon’s best year was 2017, but since 2020, his offensive numbers have seen a steady decline. For the last two seasons, his OPS+ has been below 100. Notice as well a similar decline in home runs, though he did hit more in 2022 than in 2021.
Last season, Blackmon spent significantly more games as a DH (80) than as a right fielder (50). Before the season began, Bud Black said the Rockies would do a “DH by committee,” but that isn’t really what happened. Charlie Blackmon is the Rockies’ DH. When comparing him to other designated hitters, Blackmon (89 wRC+) was ranked 13th, third in the National League behind Justin Turner (123 wRC+) and Andrew McCutchen (98 wRC+). Although Blackmon is a Silver Slugger finalist, the National League DH position was not terribly competitive in 2022.
That’s a long way of saying that Charlie Blackmon, while still solid, is not the player he once was, and although he’s still a very capable baseball player, he’s probably not worth $18 million dollars.
Or is he?
The Image
Regardless of his declining wRC+, Charlie Blackmon remains one of the most recognized athletes in MLB and certainly in the Rockies’ organization: The beard, the mullet, the little boy going viral for shouting, “There’s Charlie Blackmon!” The brand is strong.
In other words, maybe if you don’t have a very good baseball team (which the Rockies have not for the last four seasons), but you want to have very good attendance (which the Rockies consistently do), you need something more than baseball to bring fans out to the park.
One of those things is Charlie Blackmon.
Here’s a case in point.
I attended the Rockies’ last home stand against the Padres in September. The Friday night game was tied after a Juan Soto home run in the 8th. Coors was packed — it was, after all, a lovely Friday night with fireworks following the game. The fans were there, but they weren’t especially attentive, even though the game merited their attention.
In the bottom of the inning, Michael Toglia hit a lead-off double, giving the Rockies a chance to take the lead. Bud Black removed a slumping Connor Joe from the game. And then the music started:
🎶 “Josie’s on a vacation far away / Come around and talk it over.” 🎶
Coors Field erupted as Blackmon walked to the plate and fans sang along, shouting, “TONIGHT!”
In an anticlimactic moment, Blackmon went on to strike out with the Rockies eventually winning in the 10th after an Alan Trejo walk-off single. But it was the Charlie Blackmon electricity that stayed with me.
And it raises this question: Is that what the Rockies are paying for with their $18 million dollars?
To be clear, Charlie Blackmon brings leadership, experience, and a proven work ethic to the Rockies’ clubhouse. Plus, he’s clever and funny. Should this command the second-highest salary on the payroll?
It’s also worth noting that surely 2023 will be the Chuck Nazty Farewell Tour with all the fanfare that accompanies a long good bye — and all those festivities will attract fans.
He’s clearly planning ahead. This year, Blackmon become the first active MLB player to have a sportsbook partnership, so it’s not like Blackmon is heading into the next phase of his life without options.
But it’s difficult to see Blackmon’s lengthy and lucrative contract as anything other than the Rockies overpaying to keep a fan favorite on the payroll — and just to be clear, Charlie Blackmon has earned his place as one of the all-time great Rockies. He’s a contributor, yes, but the data suggest that he will not be an $18 million contributor.
Accolades
- Brendan Rodgers has had a very good year.
Colorado Rockies @RockiesCongrats to Brendan Rodgers (2B) and Charlie Blackmon (DH) on being named #SilverSlugger Finalists!
Down on the Farm
- Most of the MiLB news right now is from the Arizona Fall League, but this Zac Veen play is just special.
MLB's Arizona Fall League @MLBazFallLeague
Have you ever seen a player work a walk and steal a base on the same pitch? Well, @zacveen did just that! Watch as the @Rockies prospect shows off his blazing speed! #AFL22
Old Friends
- With his season over, Trevor May is spending more time on social media. I thought you might enjoy his tweet about former Rockie Adam Ottavino.
Trevor “IamTrevorMay” May @IamTrevorMay
This is an Adam Ottavino appreciation post.
What I’m Reading
- Thomas Harding’s “5 Big Offseason Questions for the Rockies” (Rockies Beat) — Harding gets to the point: The Rockies have decisions to make in the offseason.
- Kenneth Weber’s “Trading Brendan Rodgers Could Be for the Best (plus AFL Pebble Report)” (Purple Row) — Weber makes the case for a trade.
- Ben Walker’s “No US-born Black Players on Expected World Series Rosters” (AP News) — The point is clear: MLB needs to address its diversity problem.
Weekend Walk-off
On this World Series weekend, it’s gotta be Kyle Schwarber.
m @matttadelphiaThe rodeo athletes I work with would be mortified, but when you’re going to the World Series, the form seems less important.
Thanks for reading —
Renee