#100DaysToOffload is a simple concept that Kev Quirk thought of one day. The rationale behind the whole thing is to challenge people to write on their personal blog every day for 100 days.
Since I'm trying to make writing / blogging a habit and a chance to diffuse the stress during the time of Covid-19, I thought this would be a great way to challenge myself even in my busy schedule.
Of course, my 100 days won't be consecutive. I won't be able to finish the challenge for sure.
It has been 94 days since the first case of Covid-19 was diagnosed in the Philippines and 47 days since quarantine in one form or another was instituted in the Philippines.
The graph above shows variability in our diagnosis of Covid-19. We have an average of 94 case diagnosis per day since January 30. But if we start on March 6, 2020 where the sudden surge of diagnosis occurred, we have 154 cases on a given day. On rough estimates therefore, I believe if we are to expect a flattening of a curve we should have numbers below this number for at least two weeks.
As mentioned in a previous post, the daily confirmations show great variability and thus a 5 day moving average can better illustrate our curve. As of the moment, it looks like three mountain peaks roughly of the same height and this means we see the same number of diagnosis on average for the last 4-5 weeks. On a good note, this may also illustrate that our mitigation procedures are working, thus there is no continuous upward trend. I certainly hope so. Therefore, once we let go of our mitigation procedure, we can expect a sudden rise of the curve after two weeks or so.
Another way to illustrate the effect of Covid-19 in our society is through the numbers of recoveries and deaths. In other words, how deadly is the Covid-19 here in the Philippines? The actual case fatality rate of Covid is determined as the proportion of reported cases which are fatal within a specified time. It is a measure of the severity of the disease and is expressed in percentage.
The above graph is a simple representation of the impact of covid-19 to people on a daily basis. How many survive and how many die in a given day. Initially, more deaths were reported until April 15, 2020 when more recoveries of patients were observed than deaths. A total of 353 people recovered from COVID, outnumbering for the first time the total deaths (349) from the disease.
The best number is no more new deaths representing 100% recovery for the new cases. We can hope that as much. Keep us medical workers in your prayers!
