• Let’s Talk About the Rockies’ 2023 Center Field Options
The best one does not involve a big free-agent signing.
Nov 4, 2022
In his season-ending presser, Bill Schmidt was clear: In the offseason, the Rockies would be looking for a left-handed bat, a centerfielder, and someone who could slug along with some pitching depth — and the subtext suggested that, ideally, one player would meet all three criteria. That makes sense because the Rockies offense was not good in 2022. (An 86 wRC+, anyone?)
The conventional wisdom initially was that Schmidt was hinting at soon-to-be free agent Brandon Nimmo, a New York Met and former resident of Cheyenne, Wyoming. (In fact, Skyler Timmins has written a nice analysis about Nimmo as a potential Rockie, which you can read here.)
Initially, I agreed. But in the last two weeks, I’ve changed my mind.
In fact, I’m not sure that I expect the Rockies to do much of anything about their outfield in this offseason, and here’s why: The kids are starting to show what they can do, and that may be changing the calculus of the Rockies front office.
Who Are the Current Options?
Let’s start with the entire outfield because these players often play multiple positions. In 2022, the Rockies’ primary outfielders were Charlie Blackmon, Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza, Randal Grichuk, Garrett Hampson, Sam Hilliard, and Connor Joe — and the Rockies control all of these players, save Blackmon, who has said he intends to return in 2023.
Here’s how they fared in 2022 according to FanGraphs:
Source: FanGraphs
A few notes are in order. First, Blackmon only spent 50 games in right field, so he’s only nominally an outfielder. Second, I do not expect Hampson, Hilliard, and Joe to be back on the Rockies’ roster next year given their performances in 2022. I think the Rockies will want to spend that money elsewhere.
Third, the Rockies really believe that Kris Bryant’s injuries damaged their 2022 changes. We’ll never know, but let’s agree that the Rockies are better with Kris Bryant than without him. That means under this scenario that the Rockies could start 2023 with an outfield of Bryant, Daza, Grichuk, and Blackmon.
I suspect when Bill Schmidt spoke with the press, the Rockies really did intend to pursue a center fielder in the offseason, but that calculus has been complicated by a number of factors.
Factor 1: Some of Their Prospects Surprised Everyone
Consider the play of Wynton Bernard, Sean Bouchard, and Michael Toglia. To be clear, these players fall into small-sample-size territory, and some of their performances weren’t stellar overall, but here are their late-season numbers.
Source: FanGraphs
Sean Bouchard hit more home runs that Hampson and Hilliard did, despite their having significantly more plate appearances. Toglia’s numbers, too, while not as impressive as Bouchard’s, are an improvement over Hampson’s and Hilliard’s. Although Bernard’s fate is uncertain (and I won’t be surprised if the Rockies non-tender him), he is a true center fielder, and he was defensively sound. Plus, Bouchard and Toglia aren’t going anywhere.
When these players play — and at least two of them will — they take up outfield positions — and that’s before considering the possibility of Alan Trejo becoming a utility player, including an outfielder. (It’s part of his offseason training plan.)
If the Rockies acquire another outfielder, an already crowded outfield becomes even more congested.
Factor 2: Brenton Doyle
Perhaps you haven’t been paying much attention to Brenton Doyle, but you should.
The Rockies drafted Doyle in the fourth round of the 2019 draft out of Shepherd University, a DII school. He’s described by MLB Pipeline as “a super-toolsy and athletic outfielder.” (Did I mention he won a Gold Glove for his centerfield defensive work?)
However, Doyle’s work at the plate has been uneven. For example, he led the Pioneer League in OPS in 2019 but was then a bit uneven and struggled early with the Yard Goats — plus, he strikes out too much. Still, he excelled from mid-June until the end of the 2022 season. Doyle had a SLG of .450, a .737 OPS, and hit 29 home runs — 26 of them in pitcher-friendly Hartford. Here’s an ABQ sample:
Minor League Baseball @MiLBNo. 21 @Rockies prospect Brenton Doyle connects on a pair of mammoth dingers for the @ABQTopes.
Doyle also stole 23 bases.
In his October 18, 2022, newsletter, Thomas Harding wrote this of Brenton Doyle:
“There was even internal consideration to bring him to the Majors for the final days.
“The Rockies seek a center fielder to boost the Major League lineup at the start of 2023, but the future could be in the system. While most eyes are on Veen, Doyle could earn his shot first.”
In other words, Doyle is close. Why would the Rockies sign a center fielder when Doyle is almost MLB-ready? It would make more sense to let Daza, a perfectly serviceable center fielder, start in center with plans to promote Doyle quickly. (And, again, if the Rockies sign a center fielder, it would clog the way for Doyle.)
Factor 3: Zac Veen
I knew Veen was good, but I did not expect him to be this good or to move through the system this quickly. I’ve written elsewhere about Veen as the new face of the franchise. That was on October 11. Since then, Veen has gotten better and has been named an Arizona Fall League All-Star.
He has appeared in 16 AFL games, slashing .377/.480/.475 with an OPS of .955. He has stolen 14 bases, getting caught only twice. (The entire Rockies team stole only 44 bases in 2022. Veen by himself stole 55 in Fresno and Hartford.)
Here’s Sam Dykstra from earlier this week: “With long and lithe limbs, Veen is willing to push the envelope whenever he’s presented an opportunity, and he might only be less than a year away from assuming a leadoff spot in Denver.”
Don’t miss that last bit: “assuming a leadoff spot in Denver.” The Rockies are about to have in-house options for their center fielder, left-handed hitter, and leadoff batter. Signing a free agent or making a trade seems like a bad decision.
And there’s one more thing: Veen has flair. Perhaps you saw him stealing a base after a walk? (Sorry, Brandon Nimmo, but Zac Veen is going to give you a run for your money.) I’ve written that in addition to toning up his game, Veen needed to learn how to handle the media before he was MLB-ready, and he’s gotten practice in the AZL. This interview — which you should watch — is a case in point.
Renee Dechert @ReneeDechertZac Veen discusses a number of topics here.
mlb.comZac Veen talks Fall League | 11/02/2022MLB Central has Zac Veen on to discuss his experience in the Arizona Fall League, stealing bases, World Series thoughts, and more4:58 AM ∙ Nov 3, 2022
Meet the new face of the franchise. The Rockies paid a lot of money to Kris Bryant to do this — and I get why — but I think the former NL MVP is going to find himself supplanted by a lanky, fearless basestealer with a mustache, mullet, and fondness for smiley faces.
Reader, I am here for it.
Final Thoughts
I suspect the Rockies had a plan (kind of) involving the next window, but their player development — especially Zac Veen’s — is forcing them to rethink their strategy.
To be clear, the Rockies are going to make some minor moves, and they are going to tell us they intend to compete, but 2023 should be about two things: Letting young players get experience and working out the pitching jam in which they find themselves.
I don’t expect Zac Veen to break Spring Training with the Rockies — I think he’s headed to ABQ. But I expect him to be called up early in the season because, let’s face it, Zac Veen is beating on the doors of Coors Field, and the Rockies absolutely need to let him in.
What I’m Reading
- Thomas Harding’s “Rockies Beat, Nov. 1, 2022” (MLB.com) — Harding explores some of the Rockies’ offseason moves.
- Joelle Milholm’s “Dreaming of Mile-High Schwarbombs” (Purple Row) — What if the Rockies had signed Kyle Schwarber instead of Kris Bryant? Milholm games out the possibilities.
- Jake Mintz’s “Why Brandon Marsh’s Wet Hair Makes Him a Perfect Fit for the Phillies” — (FoxSports.com) — Just read this one.
Weekend Walkoff
Zac Veen rules.
Zac Veen makes the most of Halloween.
mlb.comTop prospects take BP in costumes | 10/31/2022Pedro Pages, Jordan Walker, Zac Veen and Parker Meadows get in the holiday spirit by taking batting practice in their Halloween costumes4:58 AM ∙ Nov 3, 2022
I’m telling you: He’s the new face of the Rockies franchise.
The World Series is almost over, and the GM meetings are less than a week away. Bring on the hot stove season.
Thanks for reading —
Renee