Thoughts on the Fediverse and its Future

I have a few thoughts on the fediverse, and mastodon specifically, so I figured I'd resurrect this blog to write some of them out.

First, a little background on my fediverse journey. I joined the fediverse around three years ago, mid-pandemic. At the time I had already left Facebook for a number of years and was in the process of leaving Instagram and Twitter.

The attraction of the fediverse at the time was the relative quiet and slowness of the entire community. I felt I could take a breath while using social media which was something I was not used to.

It felt like an actual online community and not a cacophony of noise and outrage.

Over the last few years, many people have joined myself and others in denouncing centralized social media platforms. Some of those people turned words into action and actually left for greener pastures on the fediverse.

With the influx of new users, the fediverse has become a more interesting and diverse place. It became a place where the niche met the mainstream. It's always heartening to read people's posts about the safety and comfort they feel on the fediverse in comparison to places like Twitter.

As with all things in the universe, change is inevitable.

For me, the fediverse no longer feels slow and quiet. With millions of more active users now versus when I first joined, I now feel the return of a persistent drumming of engagement and chatter I thought I had left behind.

I'm not here to whine and complain about new users “ruining” the fediverse. Online spaces are shaped by the users. If it doesn't vibe with me, I'll just up and move. One can't attach their identity to an online space.

The online world is a relentless churn, and it's dangerous to attach yourself to something that could change or even vaporize at a moment's notice.

The reason I've decided to write this right now is because changes to the fediverse are coming that will most likely push me from the space entirely.

Threads

Threads' integration with ActivityPub is the biggest reason I'll pack-up my things and depart the fediverse.

The reason I left centralized social media platforms was to separate myself from the monstrous corporations that operated them. When Threads brings Meta to the fediverse, it will irreversibly change what the fediverse was and currently is.

Many instance admins have preemptively blocked Threads from federating with their instances, and Threads will definitely defederate from many instances themselves. However, the real problem is the effect Meta social media culture and practices will have on a majority of the fediverse.

That noise and cacophony of outrage will seep into the fediverse with Meta users. When users of a Meta platform have known nothing but what they've experienced through Meta, they'll bring those same habits and practices wherever they go.

If you come to the fediverse through Meta, you've never actually left Meta.

Threads will bring many other ills to the fediverse, but I'll likely be long gone before I bear witness to them firsthand.

Turning the Fediverse Into Twitter

It was recently announced that the software that powers many of the instances on the fediverse, mastodon, will be adding comprehensive full text search in a coming release.

I don't have a strong opinion either way about the implementation of full text search. However, I do believe that with the growth of the fediverse we'll see the software, and even the values that form its foundation warp to mirror those of centralized social media platforms.

One of the many problems with centralized social media is that it puts everyone into a single arena regardless of their beliefs and values. The beauty of federation was that it was relatively simple to find those with similar values and form a community to the exclusion of those who don't share those values.

With the growth of the fediverse and the integration of the aforementioned Threads, the fediverse will inevitably become another single bowl with everyone inside.

Federation and individual instances will continue to exist. However, large instances will grow even larger and smaller instances will be under immense pressure to somehow control who their instance federates with.

This pressure will likely push most underappreciated volunteer admins of smaller instances to close down their instances. The users of those instances will then flock to larger, more established instances, and with more consolidation we will likely be left with a handful of instances controlling a vast majority of the users on the fediverse.

With Threads as one of those instances, you can expect them to use heavy-handed coercion to force the other instances to change their values to conform with Threads'. This will likely mean those who were most vulnerable on centralized platforms (minorities, sex workers, etc.) will again be unsafe in yet another online space.

I wouldn't be surprised to see software like mastodon implement algorithms in the next two-to-three years, especially after Threads integrates.

Big Tech will warp the fediverse to serve its shareholders' greed.

So What Now?

If I do leave the fediverse for good, I'll still find a place to settle down online. I'm still enjoying Gemini and write there more often than on the web. Maybe I find another niche community to become a part of.

I believe it is crucial to remain cognizant of the turmoil of the online world.

Establishing a presence can be difficult, but for many it's invaluable. Personally, I maintain my blogs and personal websites. I make frequent backups of my content so I can move whenever I need to, but I can re-establish myself with relative ease.

Remaining unattached to the platform itself is the key.