At the same time, I can't help feeling that the polls have a lot of influence on how Canadians will vote.

I wrote a thread on Mastodon about how this might work. The Conservative Party's messaging consists simply of repeating “Justin Trudeau is a horrible person and he should resign”. This is spread both by conventional media and corporate social media as news and commentary.

Then one day you get a phone call from a polling company asking whether you agree that Justin Trudeau is a horrible person and he should resign”. What are the odds that you will say yes, if you've been exposed to the statement repeatedly?

Polls are viewed as representing the most probable outcome of an election “if it were held today”. But that probability is only conditional. It is the probability that you will vote one way or another given that you've been exposed to a certain propaganda. I am sure that if in a parallel universe where the Conservative Party of Canada has not been hammering the message about Trudeau for years a similar poll was conducted, the result would be quite different.

But there's more. The poll itself has an influence on the election outcome. One reason is what is known as “social proof”. Gil Duran has a great post about this in The Framelab. He writes

People tend to copy what other people do. If something is popular, we tend to trust it more. When many other people buy a product or follow a trend, we tend to assume it’s good. Our brains are wired to look for clues from other people’s choices. It’s a basic human instinct to follow the crowd. “Monkey see, monkey do.”

If you see that a majority of your fellow voters will vote Conservative, you are more likely to do so yourself. Marketers know this very well.

The poll may also have another effect on the outcome of the election: If you are not a Conservative voter, but you are convinced that the Conservatives will win, that makes you less likely to take the trouble to vote. The poll becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.

I see propaganda as a process, where a certain political message is spread to as many people as possible and then polling is a feedback mechanism that confirms that the message is true. Polling skeptics will scrutinize the methodology and the statistical methods, and I have been one of them, but I believe now that that is missing the point. The polls can be quite accurate in that they reflect popular opinion, and yet be a key component of the propaganda process.

#Democracy #Elections #Statistics #Propaganda

Those ads are written by marketing specialists who know how to sell anything: cars, cruises, beauty products. It's interesting to consider exactly how they do it with politicians.

Conservative messaging is simple:

• Your life sucks. Your country is broken, your economy is broken. You are angry, and rightly so. (See also On uncertainty);

• You are a strong individual, and your life wouldn't suck if you were free;

• Individualism is good, working together with others is bad;

• Your life sucks and it's somebody else's fault: immigrants, feminists, Justin Trudeau, Democrats, woke people, unions, gatekeepers, the World Economic Forum, the United Nations, muslims;

• If you elect the conservative candidate, he will attack those responsible for the fact that, remember, your life sucks. You will be free from them, and that's all you need to enjoy life again.

Argentina's self-defined anarchocapitalist president Javier Milei has a name for all the people responsible for your misery: la casta, the caste. The good guys, people like you, are personas de bien, honorable people.

A word about the idea of individualism in conservative messaging. You are an individual all right, but a helpless one. Look at all the people that are holding you back: immigrants, feminists, etc. You can't do anything about them. (Well, you can buy a gun and pretend you're doing it to protect yourself from them, and while you're at it get yourself as big a truck as you can afford. But really, you know you're helpless, and only Donald Trump can make your life great again).

My idea of an absolute individualist is someone who goes into the desert and builds a house with his bare hands out of mud, generates electricity by pedalling on a stationary bike hooked up to a generator, and grows his own food. This is the exact opposite of the individualism preached by conservatives. You are a helpless individual, attacked from all sides. Fortunately your local anarchocapitalist defender is here to help.

Helplessness is also built into consumer technology, perhaps not altogether coincidentally since the same marketing gurus are involved there too, but that's a topic for another day.

#Conservatism #Propaganda