• The Rockies Have a GIDP Problem
Trevor Story’s absence doesn’t help, either.
Jul 1, 2022
Two weeks ago, I wrote about the Rockies’ tendency to hit ground balls, an especially self-destructive tendency when a team plays half its games at Coors Field. Currently, the Rockies have the third-highest GB% in baseball (46.1%). They narrowly trail the Cubs (46.5%) and the Nationals (46.4%) for this honor.
Since then, I’ve been thinking about double plays — specifically, how do the Rockies compare with other teams in terms of hitting into double plays, and which players on the team are most apt to hit into a double play? What I found surprised me.
Do the Rockies Have a GDP Problem?
Yes.
Just as a refresher, a GIDP (ground into double play) “occurs when a player hits a ground ball that results in multiple outs on the bases.” They most often take place on hard-hit ground balls, and it follows that the odds of a GIDP increase when the ball is hit by a player who is a slow runner.
Let’s start with 2021 to provide a contrast. Last year, the Rockies hit into 98 double plays, resulting in their having the 25th fewest GIDPs in baseball. (The Rays had the fewest with 75.) The league average was 111, so the Rockies were a very good team by this measure.
However, in 2022, the Rockies have already hit into 67 GIDPs, roughly two-thirds of their 2021 total. Currently, the Rockies are second only to the Nationals with 72. (Interesting note here: The Diamondbacks have hit into only 38, the third fewest in baseball while the Dodgers have hit into only 43.)
This shouldn’t be a surprise. Logically, it follows that when a team is hitting a lot of ground balls, they also increase their chances of hitting into double plays — and if anything kills offensive momentum, it’s a double-play. Right now, the Rockies need all the offensive help they can get, but the high number of GIDPs illustrates another way in which they are failing, especially in comparison to their NL West counterparts.
Which Rockies Are the Biggest Offenders?
This is where things get interesting.
(Before going further, let’s keep Elehuris Montero out of this discussion — he just hasn’t had enough opportunities — but I also wanted to leave his data in this table to provide an early benchmark.)
This table shows individual opportunities to hit into double plays followed by the number of instances in which that happened. Those numbers are then converted to a percentage.
Source: Baseball Reference
Charlie Blackmon has had the most opportunities to hit into a GIDP (78), but has done so only 4 times for a GIDP% of 5.1%. (The league average is 10.0%.) CJ Cron is close behind Blackmon with 76 opportunities, but a considerably higher GIDP% of 13.2%. So Charlie Blackmon is exceptionally good at not hitting into double plays. (Hold that thought. I’ll come back to it in the next section.)
Contrast that with Yonathan Daza and José Iglesias, who are both having good years in terms of making contact and hitting singles. However, Daza has a GIDP% of 14.3% while Iglesias’ is 17.0%. Both are much higher than Blackmon’s. With this in mind, Bud Black’s consistent use of the Blackmon in the second spot in the batting order makes sense as does placing Iglesias further down the lineup.
Almost as good as Blackmon is Kris Bryant, though we’ve seen little of him due to injuries. Still, at this point, Bryant is well below the league average of 10.0%.
Consider the other two players who are below league average: Sam Hilliard and Ryan McMahon. Hilliard is currently in Albuquerque because he’s having trouble making contact. That said, when he has the opportunity to hit into a double play (which has happened 33 times in 2022), he has done so only twice. One other weird thing: Ryan McMahon has had 46 opportunities to hit into a double play this season but has hit into only one. Connor Joe may be the Greatest Rockie Ever, but Ryan McMahon is much better at avoiding rally-killing double plays — and they’ve had equal opportunities.
It’s also worth noting that Garrett Hampson is just barely above league average at 10.5%, which strikes me as close enough.
That means that eight Rockies are above league average in terms of hitting into double plays. Who are most apt to hit into a GIDP? The first is Elias Díaz (27 opportunities, for 5 GIDP or 18.5%), who is struggling offensively.
Brendan Rodgers, who is slightly behind Díaz in GIDP% (18.2%) has had 66 opportunities and grounded into 12 double plays, like this one:
mlb.comBrendan Rodgers grounds into a double play, third baseman Max Muncy to second baseman Gavin Lux to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Kris Brya…Brendan Rodgers grounds into a double play, third baseman Max Muncy to second baseman Gavin Lux to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Kris Bryant out at 2nd. Brendan Rodgers out at 1st.9:33 PM ∙ Jun 30, 2022
The Rockies need more offense, and one way to do that is to reduce the number of double plays they hit into.
How Do the Rockies Compare in Terms of Speed?
Remember: The second factor that influences a double play is speed, and when it comes to being fleet of foot, the Rockies are a bit whatever. According to Baseball Savant, the average sprint speed in MLB is 27 feet/second. So, half of the Rockies’ roster is above average in terms of speed, and half is below average.
Source: Baseball Savant
It makes sense, then, Hampson, Hilliard, Blackmon, and Bryant, four of the fastest Rockies, also have a lower GIDP%. Of course, Iglesias and Daza are also fast players, but they still have a high GIDP%, so speed isn’t everything.
But it’s also a big difference between Charlie Blackmon and CJ Cron: Blackmon is just faster, so he beats out double plays more often than Cron does.
Did You Stumble Onto Anything Interesting While Writing This?
You know, I did — two things, actually. The first oddity builds on the piece I wrote last week about Charlie Blackmon as an effective designated hitter.
This graphic from Baseball Savant illustrates by position how Rockies players compare to other teams in terms of speed. The Rockies are the colored dots on the chart, and I’ve tagged Charlie Blackmon.
There’s nothing too revelatory here: The slow players (e.g., Rodgers, Cron, Díaz, McMahon) are slower than average when compared to other players in their positions. But look at Charlie Blackmon, who is one of the fastest designated hitters in baseball. Only Andrew McCutchen, Harold Ramirez, and Shohei Ohtani are faster than Blackmon.
Charlie Blackmon may not like being a designated hitter, but he’s good at it — and his speed makes him more effective and reduces the odds that he will hit into a double play.
Here’s the other interesting note. In 2021, Trevor Story had the opportunity to hit into 116 double plays, but he only did seven times for a GIDP% of 6.0%, the lowest on the team for anyone with a minimum of 250 plate appearances. (The league average was 9.6%.) That’s amazingly good. In 2022, however, Story has a GIDP% of 10.8%, so he’s not doing as well this year as last year (and that may be due to his slow start). That said, he’s just slightly above average, and I expect that to come down as the season plays out. Also, Story is better than his replacement, José Iglesias, at not grounding into double plays. In 2021, Iglesias had a GIDP% of 17.0%, so this is just part of his game.
But it indicates another way in which the Rockies miss Trevor Story.
Final Thoughts
I don’t have any quick answer for this except to note — again — that a moribund Rockies offense needs to elevate the baseball.
Down on the Farm
- Thomas Harding has written a nice piece on Yard Goat Michael Toglia.
- The Rockies’ Arizona Complex League team bears watching.
Rockies Club Information @RockiesClubInfo
- Aaron Schunk’s dad has talent!
eric schunk @ericschunk
Old Friends
- Terrin Vavra continues to make his way through the Orioles’ system.
- Here’s something for all the Michael Cuddyer fans out there.
What I’m Reading, Watching, & Listening To
- Nick Groke’s “Kris Bryant Returns to the Rockies Lineup with Ground to Cover and a Gap to Fill” (The Athletic) — Will Bryang be the offensive spark the Rockies need?
- Don Van Natta Jr.’s “Rob Manfred Wants You to Know: He Doens’t Hate Baseball, He Wants to Save it” (ESPN.com) — There’s a lot here. (Also, expect a pitch clock in 2023.)
- Eben Novy-Williams’ “Denver Post Looking to Sell Piece of Colorado Rockies”(Yahoo!Sports) — Let’s band together, and see if we can buy a few shares of the Rockies.
Weekend Walk-off
For Avalanche fans, this was an epic week. For Rockies fans, it was great to see the Avs and the Stanley Cup at Coors Field and moments like this one involving Avs superfan Kyle Freeland.
AT&T SportsNet™ | RM @ATTSportsNetRM
Nailed it @GabeLandeskog92 and @KFREE_21 ! #GoAvsGo #Rockies
This week also provided Rockies fans with a bitter reminder of how the team’s ownership has failed them. The Commissioner’s Trophy isn’t coming to Denver anytime soon.
Thanks for reading —
Renee