Rockies

• Why the Rockies Signed Pierce Johnson

January 31, 2023

DEC. 16, 2022, 10:12 A.M.

Rockies Pitch: A Colorado Rockies Baseball Newsletter

On Tuesday, Thomas Harding broke the news that the Rockies had signed right-handed pitcher Pierce Johnson. It soon emerged that the deal is $5 million for one year with $750,000 of incentives.

Bill Schmidt has been clear that the Rockies needed to add to their bullpen, especially with the loss of Carlos Estèvez and Tyler Kinley’s injury that will keep him out until mid-season. (In case you’ve forgotten — and no one would blame you if you did — the Rockies bullpen had MLB’s highest ERA last year, a miserable 4.82.)

That raises the question of what the 31-year-old righty brings to the Rockies as they continue to accumulate pitchers who learned to throw at elevation.

Start at the Beginning: Who Is This Guy?

Actually, it’s a pretty interesting story.

A native of Denver, Pierce Johnson attended Faith Christian Academy in Arvada. In 2009, he was drafted in the 15th round by the Tampa Bay Rays but instead opted to attend Missouri State. While with the Bears and majoring in business, Johnson was solid, finishing his junior year with an ERA of 4.76 over 75.2 innings.

In 2012, he was drafted in the first round (43rd overall) by Theo Epstein and the Chicago Cubs, signing for $1,196,000. (That’s a year before they drafted Kris Bryant.) He worked his way through the Cubs’ system and was added to their 40-man roster in 2015. In 2017, he was moved to the bullpen and in May made his MLB debut. It lasted one game (he gave up to unearned runs in an inning of work) before being sent back to the minors and ultimately being DFA’d.

Then, in September of 2017, the San Francisco Giants claimed him on waivers. He played with the Giants for two months before finding himself shuttling between the MLB team and the farm. In total, he threw 43.2 innings for the Giants.

In November 2018, he declared free agency and signed with the Hanshin Tigers of Nippon Professional Baseball in an attempt to re-set his career. While with the Tigers, he pitched 58.2 innings for an ERA of 1.38, including 91 strikeouts and 13 walks. (He was also a Central League All-Star.)

Here’s what Johnson says of his time with the Tigers:

“Everywhere I’ve been someone was like, ‘Let’s change this, let’s change that . . . I tried to be coachable and I think that was my downfall. I tried to please everyone when I should have focused on myself and what worked for me.”

He added: “I was filling up the zone more (in Japan). I was in better counts. I just did everything to help myself on the field instead of nibbling here and there and then I’m behind in the count and now guys know a fastball is coming. There, I was ahead a lot and that was my mentality.”

(There’s a pretty amazing story here about his wife needing to return to Colorado for a C-section at the time the Tigers were in the playoffs. Johnson found himself shuffling between the US and Japan while all this was going on. “It was a really hard month for us,” Johnson said. “The month of October was a blur.”)

In December of 2019, he signed a two-year contract with the San Diego Padres for $4 million. Actually, Johnson’s family had some history with the Padres. In the late 90s, his father, Don, had worked as the vice president of marketing for the Padres. Even though Pierce Johnson and his wife were Colorado residents, they had deep roots in Southern California.

And he was good. He struck out 104 in 78 2/3 innings with only 36 walks and an ERA of 3.09.

However, 2022 brought an interruption. Johnson suffered right elbow tendinitis that had him on the IL from April through September. During the season, he appeared in only 15 games — and he was not good, earning a 5.02 ERA, striking out 21 and walking eight. However, in three postseason games, he was for real: In 4 1/3 innings, Johnson struck out six, walked zero, allowed no runs, and watched opponents hit only .143 against him.

As a free agent, he went on the market, ultimately signing with the Rockies.

How Does the Stuff Look?

It’s good. He has a curveball (his favorite pitch — he throws it 64.1% of pitches) and 95 mph four-seam fastball (38.6% of pitches). He also has a sinker and a cutter, but he doesn’t use them much. Consider some specifics.

Twitter avatar for @qopbaseball MLB Quality of Pitch @qopbaseball

#Rockies Pierce Johnson 2022 Curveball Quality ⭐️ 4.71 QOPA (Top 27% MLB) ✅ Velocity (Top 6%) 🔥 Location (Top 13%) 🎯 Low Rise (Top 21%) Horizontal Break (Top 44%) @hardingatmlb

8:38 PM ∙ Dec 13, 2022

In fact, here he is in action.

Twitter avatar for @ReneeDechert Renee Dechert @reneedechert@masto.ai @ReneeDechert

Pierce Johnson

mlb.comPierce Johnson’s two strikeouts | 10/11/2022Pierce Johnson hurled two scoreless innings in relief for the Padres and collected two strikeouts while allowing no hits 4:35 PM ∙ Dec 13, 2022

The question is whether it will play at elevation.

Here’s what’s interesting: He’s been effective at Coors Field, appearing in 11 games and facing 44 batters. He gave up six hits, and the batting average when facing him was .158. — and he never gave up a run.

How Will the Rockies Use Him, and Is the Bullpen Better?

Probably, he’ll be looking to earn the set-up job for closer Daniel Bard, but you probably already knew that.

And, yes, the bullpen is looking better: Jake Bird, Lucas Gilbreath, Dinelson Lamet, Justin Lawrence, Brent Suter, and Daniel Bard.

Clearly, they need more, but the Rockies are accumulating an experienced group of relievers, with three members of their pitching staff from Colorado.

It’s a good move though I think the Rockies aren’t done yet.

Accolades

Daniel Bard has joined Team USA.

Read more here. The WBC is going to be fun.

Old Friends

Matt Adams has signed a minor-league contract with the Nationals.

What I’m Reading

Thomas Harding’s “Rockies Beat” (MLB.com) — Harding visits with the Brothers Lamber, Peter and Jimmy.
Kevin Henry’s “Nolan Jones Ready for Restart After Trade from Guardians to Rockies” (Call to the Pen) — The new outfielder talks with Henry about making the change.

★ ★ ★

Sorry this week’s newsletter is short — the end of the semester has just been brutal. I’m looking forward to the break.

Thanks for reading —

Renee

@ReneeDechert (Mastodon) ★ @Renee.Dechert (Instagram) ★ @ReneeDechert (Post)

• The Rockies Have a GIDP Problem

January 23, 2023

Trevor Story’s absence doesn’t help, either.

Renee Dechert

Jul 1, 2022

Two weeks ago, I wrote about the Rockies’ tendency to hit ground balls, an especially self-destructive tendency when a team plays half its games at Coors Field. Currently, the Rockies have the third-highest GB% in baseball (46.1%). They narrowly trail the Cubs (46.5%) and the Nationals (46.4%) for this honor.

Since then, I’ve been thinking about double plays — specifically, how do the Rockies compare with other teams in terms of hitting into double plays, and which players on the team are most apt to hit into a double play? What I found surprised me.

Do the Rockies Have a GDP Problem?

Yes.

Just as a refresher, a GIDP (ground into double play) “occurs when a player hits a ground ball that results in multiple outs on the bases.” They most often take place on hard-hit ground balls, and it follows that the odds of a GIDP increase when the ball is hit by a player who is a slow runner.

Let’s start with 2021 to provide a contrast. Last year, the Rockies hit into 98 double plays, resulting in their having the 25th fewest GIDPs in baseball. (The Rays had the fewest with 75.) The league average was 111, so the Rockies were a very good team by this measure.

However, in 2022, the Rockies have already hit into 67 GIDPs, roughly two-thirds of their 2021 total. Currently, the Rockies are second only to the Nationals with 72. (Interesting note here: The Diamondbacks have hit into only 38, the third fewest in baseball while the Dodgers have hit into only 43.)

This shouldn’t be a surprise. Logically, it follows that when a team is hitting a lot of ground balls, they also increase their chances of hitting into double plays — and if anything kills offensive momentum, it’s a double-play. Right now, the Rockies need all the offensive help they can get, but the high number of GIDPs illustrates another way in which they are failing, especially in comparison to their NL West counterparts.

Which Rockies Are the Biggest Offenders?

This is where things get interesting.

(Before going further, let’s keep Elehuris Montero out of this discussion — he just hasn’t had enough opportunities — but I also wanted to leave his data in this table to provide an early benchmark.)

This table shows individual opportunities to hit into double plays followed by the number of instances in which that happened. Those numbers are then converted to a percentage.

Source: Baseball Reference

Charlie Blackmon has had the most opportunities to hit into a GIDP (78), but has done so only 4 times for a GIDP% of 5.1%. (The league average is 10.0%.) CJ Cron is close behind Blackmon with 76 opportunities, but a considerably higher GIDP% of 13.2%. So Charlie Blackmon is exceptionally good at not hitting into double plays. (Hold that thought. I’ll come back to it in the next section.)

Contrast that with Yonathan Daza and José Iglesias, who are both having good years in terms of making contact and hitting singles. However, Daza has a GIDP% of 14.3% while Iglesias’ is 17.0%. Both are much higher than Blackmon’s. With this in mind, Bud Black’s consistent use of the Blackmon in the second spot in the batting order makes sense as does placing Iglesias further down the lineup.

Almost as good as Blackmon is Kris Bryant, though we’ve seen little of him due to injuries. Still, at this point, Bryant is well below the league average of 10.0%.

Consider the other two players who are below league average: Sam Hilliard and Ryan McMahon. Hilliard is currently in Albuquerque because he’s having trouble making contact. That said, when he has the opportunity to hit into a double play (which has happened 33 times in 2022), he has done so only twice. One other weird thing: Ryan McMahon has had 46 opportunities to hit into a double play this season but has hit into only one. Connor Joe may be the Greatest Rockie Ever, but Ryan McMahon is much better at avoiding rally-killing double plays — and they’ve had equal opportunities.

It’s also worth noting that Garrett Hampson is just barely above league average at 10.5%, which strikes me as close enough.

That means that eight Rockies are above league average in terms of hitting into double plays. Who are most apt to hit into a GIDP? The first is Elias Díaz (27 opportunities, for 5 GIDP or 18.5%), who is struggling offensively.

Brendan Rodgers, who is slightly behind Díaz in GIDP% (18.2%) has had 66 opportunities and grounded into 12 double plays, like this one:

GIDP

mlb.comBrendan Rodgers grounds into a double play, third baseman Max Muncy to second baseman Gavin Lux to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Kris Brya…Brendan Rodgers grounds into a double play, third baseman Max Muncy to second baseman Gavin Lux to first baseman Freddie Freeman. Kris Bryant out at 2nd. Brendan Rodgers out at 1st.9:33 PM ∙ Jun 30, 2022

The Rockies need more offense, and one way to do that is to reduce the number of double plays they hit into.

How Do the Rockies Compare in Terms of Speed?

Remember: The second factor that influences a double play is speed, and when it comes to being fleet of foot, the Rockies are a bit whatever. According to Baseball Savant, the average sprint speed in MLB is 27 feet/second. So, half of the Rockies’ roster is above average in terms of speed, and half is below average.

Source: Baseball Savant

It makes sense, then, Hampson, Hilliard, Blackmon, and Bryant, four of the fastest Rockies, also have a lower GIDP%. Of course, Iglesias and Daza are also fast players, but they still have a high GIDP%, so speed isn’t everything.

But it’s also a big difference between Charlie Blackmon and CJ Cron: Blackmon is just faster, so he beats out double plays more often than Cron does.

Did You Stumble Onto Anything Interesting While Writing This?

You know, I did — two things, actually. The first oddity builds on the piece I wrote last week about Charlie Blackmon as an effective designated hitter.

This graphic from Baseball Savant illustrates by position how Rockies players compare to other teams in terms of speed. The Rockies are the colored dots on the chart, and I’ve tagged Charlie Blackmon.

There’s nothing too revelatory here: The slow players (e.g., Rodgers, Cron, Díaz, McMahon) are slower than average when compared to other players in their positions. But look at Charlie Blackmon, who is one of the fastest designated hitters in baseball. Only Andrew McCutchen, Harold Ramirez, and Shohei Ohtani are faster than Blackmon.

Charlie Blackmon may not like being a designated hitter, but he’s good at it — and his speed makes him more effective and reduces the odds that he will hit into a double play.

Here’s the other interesting note. In 2021, Trevor Story had the opportunity to hit into 116 double plays, but he only did seven times for a GIDP% of 6.0%, the lowest on the team for anyone with a minimum of 250 plate appearances. (The league average was 9.6%.) That’s amazingly good. In 2022, however, Story has a GIDP% of 10.8%, so he’s not doing as well this year as last year (and that may be due to his slow start). That said, he’s just slightly above average, and I expect that to come down as the season plays out. Also, Story is better than his replacement, José Iglesias, at not grounding into double plays. In 2021, Iglesias had a GIDP% of 17.0%, so this is just part of his game.

But it indicates another way in which the Rockies miss Trevor Story.

Final Thoughts

I don’t have any quick answer for this except to note — again — that a moribund Rockies offense needs to elevate the baseball.

Down on the Farm

Thomas Harding has written a nice piece on Yard Goat Michael Toglia.
The Rockies’ Arizona Complex League team bears watching.

Twitter avatar for @RockiesClubInfo Rockies Club Information @RockiesClubInfo

It was announced today by @MiLB that outfielder Jesus Bugarin has been named the Arizona Complex League's Player of the Week for the week of June 20-26. During that span, the 20-year-old went 7-for-16 (.438) with 2 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR & 6 RBI, putting up a 1.349 OPS and a .500 BAbip.

5:17 PM ∙ Jun 27, 2022

Aaron Schunk’s dad has talent!

Twitter avatar for @ericschunk eric schunk @ericschunk

My sketch of the @GoYardGoats Dunkin Donuts Park (plus handiwork on the ball I got to throw out to Aaron on Father’s Day). Did the drawing over a two-game period, totaling about 2 hours. @RealSlimSchunky @Rockies @MiLB

12:40 PM ∙ Jun 28, 2022

Old Friends

Terrin Vavra continues to make his way through the Orioles’ system.
Here’s something for all the Michael Cuddyer fans out there.

What I’m Reading, Watching, & Listening To

Nick Groke’s “Kris Bryant Returns to the Rockies Lineup with Ground to Cover and a Gap to Fill” (The Athletic) — Will Bryang be the offensive spark the Rockies need?
Don Van Natta Jr.’s “Rob Manfred Wants You to Know: He Doens’t Hate Baseball, He Wants to Save it” (ESPN.com) — There’s a lot here. (Also, expect a pitch clock in 2023.)
Eben Novy-Williams’ “Denver Post Looking to Sell Piece of Colorado Rockies”(Yahoo!Sports) — Let’s band together, and see if we can buy a few shares of the Rockies.

Weekend Walk-off

For Avalanche fans, this was an epic week. For Rockies fans, it was great to see the Avs and the Stanley Cup at Coors Field and moments like this one involving Avs superfan Kyle Freeland.

Twitter avatar for @ATTSportsNetRM AT&T SportsNet™ | RM @ATTSportsNetRM

Nailed it @GabeLandeskog92 and @KFREE_21 ! #GoAvsGo #Rockies

1:03 AM ∙ Jun 30, 2022

This week also provided Rockies fans with a bitter reminder of how the team’s ownership has failed them. The Commissioner’s Trophy isn’t coming to Denver anytime soon.

Thanks for reading —

Renee

• Archive: A Few Thoughts on the End of the Rockies’ 2021 Season

January 9, 2023

The Rockies weren’t very good, but a lot happened.

Renee Dechert

Oct 4, 2021

Yesterday, the Rockies’ 2021 season came to a close. During one of the most exciting final days of the regular season in recent memory, the Rockies were playing meaningless baseball in a half-empty Chase Field.

Twitter avatar for @choice_fielder Max Bay @choice_fielder

Anybody else as pumped as I am for the Rockies Diamondbacks game?

6:48 PM ∙ Oct 3, 2021

(To be clear, Bay is an avid Dodgers fan, so his tone is sarcastic.)

The Rockies finished with a record of 74-87, (48-33 at Coors Field; 26-54 on the road). They were better than a lot of pundits thought they would be, but the last three years have shown the Rockies to be a 70-win team, not a serious playoff contender, despite ownership assessments like this: “I truly in my heart believe that this is a very talented team that underperformed the last couple of years.” The “guys playing better” strategy has been remarkably consistent— and not in a good way.

The offseason in baseball is about autopsying what has happened with an eye to next year. I enjoy those kinds of exercises, and I’ll be started by the end of the week. First, though, I wanted to take a moment and consider what happened this year, especially in light of the Rockies’ (unsurprising) decision to name Bill Schmidt permanent general manager. Despite their record, it was a big year for the Rockies.

Here’s some of the news from 2021.

Jeff Bridich Resigned, and Bill Schmidt Became General Manager — No one was surprised by the decision, especially given that it came in a highly insular organization. Generally speaking, it was not well received:

Twitter avatar for @EricGoodman Eric Goodman @EricGoodman

Former MLB Executive on #Rockies hiring Bill Schmidt as GM.. “Confirms their total lack of self awareness along w/extending their prevailing ineptitude by design. They didn't even seek outside opinions & methodology. It's baffling to the baseball world, absolutely inexplicable!”

6:41 PM ∙ Oct 3, 2021

I’m ambivalent about Schmidt being named general manager. As someone who’s spent time working in situations without clear leadership, I’m sympathetic to a group saying, “We can’t handle more change. Just give us stability for awhile.” Apparently, for the Rockies, Schmidt has done that.

In addition, we know that the Rockies were hemorrhaging staff. Schmidt has begun filling positions left vacant, including hiring Scott Van Lenten to oversee research and development. None of this is sexy or revelatory, but stability matters.

(If you’re interested, there’s a link to Bill Schmidt’s interview with Jack Corrigan here.)

Moreover, I remain convinced that the Rockies are an organization operating under “The Plan” Jeff Bridich devised. That may explain Schmidt’s open-ended contract. Since The Plan ends when the starting rotation is no longer operable, the occupant of Jeff Bridich’s office is less important. (To be clear, the initial results have been mixed.)

I would also assume that Bridich’s leaving was less a firing than an expression of dissatisfaction at Dick Monfort’s decision to promote Greg Feasel. The timing suggests the two were not a coincidence. Moreover, I suspect the #FireBridich campaign got to him. He hadn’t seemed happy for a long time.

But anyone who thinks the Bridich Years are over is being premature. It takes time to assess leadership effectiveness and evaluate the fallout from decisions made by a previous administration. In the fall of 2009, I remember a student telling the library director (who also has a PhD in history) that he wanted to write his research paper on whether Barack Obama was a good president. Susan explained to him that decades pass before it’s possible to evaluate a president — they’d only just received Bill Clinton’s papers the previous month. That’s going to be the case with Jeff Bridich. We know he was a terrible communicator, and we know he was bad at signing free agents, but we won’t understand his legacy for awhile.

Nolan Arenado Was Traded — We knew Arenado was unhappy, and in February, he punched his ticket out of Colorado. For fans, it was distressing for a number of reasons: A lack of closure; the loss of the face of the franchise and a generational talent; questions about the return the Rockies received; and a revelation in the national media of the Rockies’ front office incompetence. Arenado sent the fans a goodbye video, but it was hard. Without Arenado, who were the Colorado Rockies? It also showed how little the Rockies understand their fans.

Speaking for myself, I found Arenado’s return to Coors Field for the All-Star Game deeply satisfying — and I feel like when he took the field and I got to give him a standing ovation, I was through it. (Fandom is a weird relationship.) Emotion aside, Arenado’s exit from Colorado fundamentally changed the franchise.

The All-Star Game Came to Coors Field — It was unexpected (and surely a cash cow for the Rockies and McGregor Square). It was also a very big deal — albeit hastily thrown together. (Someone, please, explain those uniforms. They still don’t make sense outside of Atlanta.) Seeing Arenado and Germán Márquez support Trevor Story in the Home Run Derby was very cool, and that moment when Márquez pitched with Arenado picking up a ground ball and firing it to first was pretty special, too. I feel like we earned that, and we only got that moment because of a series of actions that were unplanned when the season began.

For a week, the baseball world revolved around Denver.

Larry Walker Entered the Hall of Fame — The Rockies finally have a presence in Cooperstown, which is pretty terrific. In addition, the Rockies celebrated Walker’s career and retired his number (which was probably a good way to fill Coors Field at the end of the season when the team was out of the playoff chase).

“I want you to view that plaque with a certain amount of pride,” Walker said during his Coors Field speech. “I want you to see it with your face on it, not mine. . . . Today I don’t say I have a plaque in Cooperstown, I say WE have a plaque in Cooperstown.” Everything about Larry Walker’s HOF induction was a big deal.

Trevor Story Is (Probably) Done as a Rockie — All that was missing from Nolan Arenado’s Colorado exit happened for Trevor Story. The last week of the Rockies’ season felt like an ongoing eulogy. He addressed fans; he gave away his Rockies gear; he was emotional about leaving his teammates. In the way that the hiring of Bill Schmidt provided a strange parallel to Jeff Bridich’s early-season exit, Trevor Story’s final games with Colorado framed a season that began with the Arenado deal.

The Rockies’ handling of Arenado and Story also raised similar questions about the front office’s ability to manage a professional baseball team.

Fans (Kind of) Came Back to Coors Field — Nick Groke made an important pointabout this in The Athletic last week:

Fans did turn out to Coors Field this season, even as their team faded from contention. After the Rockies opened for full capacity on June 28 against the Pirates in a kind of second swing at Opening Day, they averaged 30,263 fans the rest of the season. A persistent pandemic kept crowds down across baseball, it seemed, but for the Rockies, their attendance dipped.

Over the same time period in 2019, the last time Coors Field was open for full capacity, the Rockies averaged 38,525 fans, even as they again faded from contention. Their 2021 attendance amounted to a 24 percent full-capacity decrease. Two years ago, the Rockies ranked sixth in attendance in the majors. Even after their slide, and even though an accurate, league-wide accounting is difficult this year, the Rockies probably finished among the top 10 in attendance. Coors Field remains a draw.

Turns out, there’s a cost to fielding a marginal baseball team.

A Thought About Dick Monfort and Fans — I’ve come to wonder if Dick Monfort has become fan shy. This was brought home to me while watching the Larry Walker festivities when an unannounced Dick Monfort made his way to the podium to give a speech. He did this, presumably, not because of an error in the program but rather to decrease the chances of fans booing him. (I’ve heard from some who were at the game they were prepared to do so.)

If that’s the case, and if Monfort is, indeed, susceptible to fan criticism, then perhaps fans have found a pressure point that would work better than attendance boycotts.

Just a thought.

With that, now that we have all the data, it’s time to autopsy 2021 and begin planning for the future. These were just a few points outside the numbers that felt worth revisiting.

So, when do the Winter Leagues start?

Thank You for Reading

September 26 marked the first anniversary of Rockies Pitch, and I wanted to thank you for subscribing to this newsletter, reading it, recommending it, and making suggestions for improvement. Everyone has too much stuff to read, so I appreciate this newsletter being added to your inbox.

When I started Rockies Pitch, I told myself if I had 30 readers who appreciated the content, that would be enough. I passed that goal early on, and the numbers have surpassed my expectations. Excessive thanks can become maudlin, so I’ll stop now, but always know that I am grateful.

Look for the regular Rockies Pitch on Friday.

Renee

@307Renee

• Archive: More Rockies Are Preparing for Winter League Baseball

January 9, 2023

What does this suggest about the team’s 2022 plans?

Renee Dechert

Oct 1, 2021

The 2021 MLB season is winding down, but some of the Rockies will play on during the offseason.

Twitter avatar for @d_allentuck Danielle Allentuck @d_allentuck

The plan right now is for Rolison to play the first half of the season. Sam Hilliard, Brian Serven, Dom Nuñez and Chris Owings are among the other #Rockies players planning to play winer ball this year.

9:11 PM ∙ Sep 27, 2021

The Rolison announcement is official:

Twitter avatar for @TigresdelLicey Tigres del Licey @TigresdelLicey

Anunciamos la contratación del lanzador zurdo Ryan Rolison, prospecto #3 de los Rockies de Colorado y Samad Taylor, prospecto #17 de Blue Jay nombrado como el Mejor Corredor de Bases Liga Noreste AA, por Baseball America 2021. ¡Bienvenido a la #FamiliaAzul 🐅💙! #ElGlorioso

2:54 PM ∙ Sep 27, 2021

Given that Rolison missed significant time due to appendicitis and a finger injury, it makes sense that the Rockies want him to build up his innings in preparation for 2022. In addition, Thomas Harding writes that the Dominican Winter League is “a highly competitive atmosphere that can often serve as a bridge to the intensity of the Majors.”

Ryan Rolison isn’t the only Rockie who will be playing winter ball. Sam Hilliard, Julian Fernández, Brian Serven, Dom Nuñez, Chris Owings, and Colton Welker will play as well, and there are rumors that Jordan Sheffield will, too. (Final rosters as well as Arizona Fall League rosters should be available in the next few days.)

Hilliard will be playing in the Mexican Pacific League as he continues to hone his approach at the plate. Hilliard has shortened his swing in an attempt to increase contact and reduce strikeouts, so it makes sense that he would further that work in the offseason.

He has acknowledged the changes have required some practice. “I’m a long guy and I have long levers, so I’m just shortening my swing as much as I can. I believe I’m on my way to getting the most out of the swing that I have. That’s just about cleaning up some things,” Hilliard said.

While Bud Black has been positive about the changes Hilliard has made, he acknowledges there’s more to be done. “He has to continue to work on putting the ball in play,” Black told Patrick Saunders, “And we have seen a more concentrated effort to do that, even with two strikes. Sam, with his strength, if he just puts the ball in play more, I think the average will climb.” In other words, the Rockies have some clear expectations, and Hilliard is attempting to meet them (and, presumably, earn a starting outfield spot).

Joining Hilliard in the Mexican Pacific League is Colton Welker. Given that Welker served an 80-game PED suspension, causing him to miss most of the season, he will benefit from additional playing time as he attempts to earn a starting spot in 2022.

The other teams that will host the Rockies remain unknown.

In the past, the Rockies have used winter baseball to help players recover after missing a season due to injuries (e.g., Chi Chi Gonzálex and Charlie Blackmon, whose stay in the Dominican Republic is archived in his Twitter feed for anyone curious enough to do some excavating). Presumably, Owings and Sheffield will be playing to make up for missed time due to injuries. But this offseason will have an usually high number of Rockies seeing additional action — they have typically only sent four or five players. This year, the Rockies have eight players who will participate in the Winter Leagues, which marks a decided shift.

What does it mean? Here are a few theories.

There’s a New Boss — Since the Rockies have a new (albeit interim) general manager in Bill Schmidt, it makes sense that there would be changes in the organization’s player development strategies. We won’t know if this strategy worked until Spring Training, but it suggests a new philosophy in the Rockies’ offseason player development.

It also hints that a frugal Rockies organization will attempt to develop what they have as opposed to spending heavily on free agents or making trades. The Rockies have been known to overvalue their prospects, and this move to additional offseason player development suggests that part of the organizational philosophy remains unchanged. * The Rockies Want to Give Hilliard and Nuñez a Chance to Improve — Neither player had an especially remarkable season in 2021. Hilliard has slashed .211/.288/.441 for a wRC+ of 77 and an fWAR of 0.2; Nuñez went .182/.287/.368 for a wRC+ of 66 and an fWAR of 0.3. Nuñez has been a disappointing catcher on both sides of the plate — a fact even more noticeable given the year Elias Díaz has had (92 wRC+; 1.5 fWAR). Like Hilliard, Nuñez is preparing to make a case for himself in spring training. Before that, he will play for the Indios de Mayagüez in the Puerto Rican Winter League.

The fact that Brian Serven is also playing winter baseball suggests there may be competition for Nuñez if his game doesn’t pick up. This year in Albuquerque, Serven slashed .247/.303/.498 for a wRC+ of 89. To be fair, it’s Minor League baseball, but Serven clearly wants his chance.

If the Rockies want to build on their current starting rotation, other parts of the team must perform better, notably an offensively anemic outfield. I expect the Rockies’ outfield to look different in 2022; by playing the Winter Leagues, Hilliard is trying to earn a spot. * The Rockies Are Trying to Get the Pitching Staff Up to Speed — The Rockies have given Peter Lamber and Ryan Feltner MLB time during September to see where they are — an ERA of 11.37 in 6.1 IP and 11.12 ERA in 5.2 IP, respectively. Rolison will be afforded that opportunity in the Dominican Republic. This suggests that the Rockies are planning for a rotation without Jon Gray in the event they are unable to re-sign him or looking for that sixth starter in the event of a starter injury.

Sheffield and Fernández are destined to help a marginal bullpen that had the fourth-highest ERA in baseball (4.90 and an fWAR of only 1.5). These relievers need more work, especially a 25-year-old Julian Fernández.

Final Thoughts

Russell A. Carleton’s research indicates that playing in the Winter Leagues has little impact on most players, so it may not matter. But it does show a Rockies team trying something a little different as they make plans for 2022.

It also gives Rockies fans something to look forward to in the offseason because watching Winter League Baseball — even if you don’t speak Spanish — is a lot of fun.