• So, How Bad Is the Rockies’ Offense?
It’s bad.
Jun 17, 2022
Last Saturday, Manny Randhawa tweeted this about the Colorado Rockies’ offense:
Manny Randhawa @MannyOnMLB
Bryan @RockyMountainBKI realize the Rockies currently have a 27-37 record, which is not the mark of a good team, but the tweet made me wonder just how bad the Rockies are offensively. The answer is straightforward: very bad. The causes, however, are less obvious.
You’ll remember that in 2021, the Rockies had the league-worse offense in baseball as measured by wRC+ (82). The front office recognized the problem and re-signed CJ Cron and traded for Randal Grichuk in an attempt to address a lack of offensive power.
The initial results were promising with the Rockies 13-10 on May 1; however, they did not last as the Rockies muddled through much of May and the first half of June. After being swept by the Guardians yesterday, the Rockies have lost their last seven consecutive games at Coors Field.
I’ve written before about the effect errors are having on the Rockies — they now also have 13 consecutive errors in games at Coors Field, a team record — and I’ve also discussed the Rockies’ need for an “action guy” given changes to the 2022 baseball. But right now, I’m interested in attempting to quantify how ineffective the offense has been.
Bud Black recognized this problem in his post-game media availability on Tuesday: “But overall, our power is lacking. When you look at our roster, and you look at the names and what they’re capable of on the power side, right now we’re not producing the power that we anticipated.”
It’s worth considering that power in more detail.
League Comparisons
Let’s first compare the Rockies to other MLB teams in terms of offense.
Right now, the Yankees have a league-high wRC+ of 119 followed by the Mets’ 115. The Dodgers are fourth with a wRC+ of 113. For comparison, the Rockies have a team wRC+ of 88, better only than Pittsburgh, Detroit, and Oakland. The low wRC+ indicates that the Rockies have not been good at creating runs.
Consider another metric: home runs. The Yankees have hit the most home runs (100) followed by Atlanta with 97. The Rockies are 24th with 54 home runs. Once again, they are not optimizing playing baseball at elevation.
It’s worth spending a moment on an “anti-power” metric: ground-ball rate (GB%). Clearly, hitters with a higher GB% tend to hit fewer home runs since they’re keeping the ball mostly on the ground. In case you’re wondering about the Rockies’ GB%, it’s still the highest in the league at 47.2%, with Washington second worst (barely) at 47.1%. The team with the lowest GB%? That would be the Dodgers at 38.1%.
If we look at hard-hit percentage (that is, balls that are hit harder than 95 mph), Atlanta leads the league with a Hard% of 36.4%. The Rockies, in contrast, are 24th with a Hard% of 28.6%.
To summarize, the Rockies do not consistently hit the ball in the air, and they do not hit the ball hard, a recipe for disaster (or a record of 27-37).
Team Statistics
That’s how the Rockies as a team compare. Now let’s consider individual players.
Here’s what FanGraphs shows as of Thursday.
Source: FanGraphs
Currently, CJ Cron is the Rockies’ most valuable player — and it’s not close. He leads the team in fWAR, home runs, SLG, and wRC+. Even then, however, Cron’s home run hitting has slowed since the beginning of the season, though he remains in the MLB top 20 in terms of home runs. (Aaron Judge leads MLB with 25.) And the second-best home run hitter on the team? Charlie Blackmon with 10, which no one saw coming.
The surprise contributors as measured by wRC+ are Brian Serven (though he’s still in small-sample-size territory), Yonathan Daza, and José Iglesias. Daza and Iglesias have shown consistent ability to get on base. No one, I would argue, is surprised by Connor Joe’s effectiveness at the plate.
The mysteries? Brendan Rodgers and Ryan McMahon. The Rockies need Rodgers and McMahon to be productive, but that just hasn’t happened. (Mario DeGenz has more on McMahon here.)
The disappointments? Sam Hilliard, Randal Grichuk, and Elias Díaz. These players were supposed to hit, but Grichuk and Díaz are slugging below .200, and while Hilliard has power, he also has the second-highest strikeout rate. In June, he’s gone 0 for 20 with 10 Ks. Being able to hit the ball hard isn’t especially helpful if a player cannot make contact.
I also wanted to focus on ground-ball rate and hard- hit percentage.
Source: FanGraphs
Five of the Rockies hitters have a GB% of more than 50%, and Díaz and Daza are above 49%, though Daza gets a pass on this one as his propensity for slapping singles is working. Also, note the player with the lowest GB%: CJ Cron.
Perhaps most unsettling, however, is the fact that Randal Grichuk has become a consistent ground-ball hitter since arriving at Coors Field — as in the player with the fourth-highest GB% in baseball. (If it’s any consolation, he’s hitting the ball hard as he hits it into the ground.) Last year, Grichuk’s GB% was 39.7%, and his career average is 39.5%, so his experience with the Rockies is inconsistent with his career performance.
To provide a GB% comparison, this year, Nolan Arenado’s GB% is 28.5% (the lowest in his career and the third lowest in baseball); Trevor Story’s is 33.1% (which is fairly typical for him); and Raimel Tapia’s is 49.6%, his lowest GB% since 2019. Mike Trout has the lowest GB% in baseball at 23.7%.
To be clear, the Rockies are hitting the ball hard: McMahon, Hilliard, Rodgers, and Grichuk are all hitting the ball harder than Cron is. The problem is where they’re hitting the ball, which is on the ground.
Coors Field handsomely rewards players who hit the ball hard and in the air. But despite their best efforts, the Rockies have constructed a team that struggles to elevate the ball, a fact reflected in their record.
What’s Going on Here?
The Rockies’ offense problems are not new.
Yesterday, Randhawa tweeted this:
In terms of what can be done, who knows?
Maybe the Rockies need a new hitting coach. I’m hesitant to see a new coach as the mid-season factor that’s cures a team’s ills. That said, the Rockies’ offense has not been well served by Dave Magadan’s presence on their coaching staff.
Perhaps the deadened 2022 baseball is affecting the Rockies, but if that’s the case, all teams should be equally affected, which hasn’t been the case.
Perhaps this points to a development issue, which would explain Connor Joe’s and CJ Cron’s success, but Randal Grichuk is not a product of the Rockies system, and he’s struggled the most.
Who knows?
Sam Hilliard has been sent to Albuquerque to sort out his issues, but the larger problems remain, and until the Rockies answer these very fundamental questions, they will continue to struggle offensively.
Down on the Farm
- Josh Norris outlines his ideal Futures teams. Which Rockies are included? Ezequiel Tovar and Drew Romo. The inclusion of Tovar is no surprise. Romo, though, has caught the eye of the baseball world this season, which is excellent.
- MLB Pipeline has ranked their best prospects from the 2021 draft. For the Rockies, they’ve selected Hunter Goodman, a player we need to pay more attention to.
- Noah Yingling discusses eight Isotopes you should care about, including two who are now with the Rockies.
- This piece about Penn State junior Ashley Webb describes her internship with the Hartford Yard Goats. It provides a nice sense of MiLB lifel.
Old Friends
- Kevin Henry spoke with Bryan Shaw about returning to Coors Field (where he played well in two games).
- Tyler Anderson had quite a night on Wednesday.
- Patrick Saunders visited with Trevor Story. He doesn’t seem to miss Denver much. (Incidentally, Story’s reinvention of himself as a member of the Red Sox has been fascinating.)
Patrick Saunders @psaundersdpI checked in with former #Rockies shortstop Trevor Story. Here's what he had to say about his transition to the #RedSox: denverpost.com/2022/06/12/tre… via @denverpost
denverpost.comTrevor Story’s self-belief helped him transition from Rockies to Red SoxBoston Red Sox second baseman Trevor Story seeks balance.7:08 PM ∙ Jun 12, 2022
- Chi Chi González was DFA’d by the Twins and picked up by the Brewers.
MLB Jersey Numbers @NumbersMLB
RHP Chi Chi González (@alexgonzalezchi) will wear number 21. Last worn by INF Travis Shaw in 2021. #Brewers
What I’m Reading, Watching, & Listening To
- Joelle Milholm’s “Diving into the Seven-game Coors Field Losing Streak” (Purple Row) — Speaking of bad offense, Milholm offers her take.
- Thomas Harding’s “Díaz Trying to Stay Positive During Rough Patch” (MLB.com) — Díaz is one of the players the Rockies need, a fact he recognizes. Harding describes Díaz’s approach during this slump.
- Andy Abeyta’s “Photos: Rockies Catcher and Coachella ValleyNnative Brian Serven at Petco Park” (The Desert Sun) — As you know, I always appreciate local coverage of professional baseball players. In this photo essay, Abeyta traveled to Petco Park to photograph Serven — including some post-game hugs with his family.
Weekend Walk-off
If something’s about Connor Joe, it’s probably awesome. This time, he drew the attention of Batting Stance Guy.
Batting Stance Guy @BattingStanceG
There’s a reason he’s the Greatest Rockie Ever.
Thanks for reading —
Renee