San José, CA – On Friday, March 7, the Department of Labor released its report on the job market in February. This is the first report based on the labor market in the first weeks of the new Trump administration. Overall, the job market looked a little softer; job creation was a bit less, at 151,000 rather than economists’ expectations of 170,000 net new jobs. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.1% from 4.0% in January.

San José, CA – At the stroke of midnight on Tuesday morning, President Trump’s trade war was launched against the three largest trading partners of the United States. Canada and Mexico were hit with across the board 25% tariffs, with the exception of Canadian energy products: oil and electricity, which were given 10% tariffs. China was hit with an additional 10% tariff, bringing the total rate to 20% with the initial 10% tariffs back in February.

San José, CA – Consumers cut back on purchases in January 2025, the largest decline since February 2021. The Bureau of Economic Analysis report on Personal Income and Outlays released February 28 said that household spending fell by 0.5%, adjusted for inflation. This is much greater than the 0.2% drop expected.

San José, CA – On Thursday, February 27, the Department of Labor reported that new claims for unemployment insurance jumped by 22,000, or 10% in the week ending February 22. New claims for UI have risen substantially in the first weeks of the new Trump administration. The total increase in new claims has been 34,000 or 15%.

San José, CA – On Monday, February 24, Denny’s, one of the three largest breakfast chains in the United States, announced that it would be rolling out an extra surcharge on eggs. Denny’s followed Waffle House, another large breakfast chain. Both are trying to pass along the rising costs of eggs, which are up almost 20% just since December. This is mainly because of the spreading bird flu, where quarantine measures have meant the killing more than 100 million poultry, including 20 million of chickens, just in the last three months of 2024.

San José, CA – On Friday, February 21, all the major U.S. stock indices fell. The broadest measure, the S&P 500, dropped more than 100 points. What scared the stock markets were a pair of indicators showing signs of rising inflation and a slowdown in the economy, which is commonly called stagflation.

San José, CA – On Thursday, February 13, President Trump signed another executive order, this time to study implementing his plan for “reciprocal tariffs.” While many businesses and financial investors breathed a sigh of relief that these would not go into effect until April, the Trump administration will use this time to try to define many policies of other countries as tariffs – even when they are not.

San José, CA – On Friday, February 14, the Department of Commerce released its report on Retail Sales for January 2025. For those hoping for a strong report on Valentine’s Day, there was no love as retail sales fell 0.9%. While this report was seasonally adjusted for the fact that sales in January are typically lower than December, it is not adjusted for inflation. With inflation up 0.5% in January according to the Department of Labor’s report earlier in the week, it is likely the real, or inflation adjusted sales fell more than 1% in one month, a very weak report.

San José, CA – On Monday, February 10, President Trump signed an executive order raising tariffs, or taxes on imports, to 25% on steel and aluminum. The tariffs are to start on March 4. While his first round of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China was based on a “national emergency” of refugees and drugs coming into the country, the latest tariff order used a “national security” rationale. They are seen as less likely to be suspended as the first round was.

San José, CA – On Wednesday, February 12, the Department of Labor said that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose in January as compared to December of 2024. The monthly increase in prices was one half of one percent, as compared to 0.3% in December. This was the highest monthly increase in prices in over a year. Compared to a year ago, prices were up 3%, but if January’s increase continued for the rest of the year, the inflation rate would be 8%.

San José, CA – On Sunday, February 9, President Trump ordered the U.S. Mint to stop producing pennies.

Can he legally do this? Probably not, but Trump has shown a disregard for the law and even the Constitution that he swore to uphold. After all, he is a convicted criminal. It is Congress, not the president, nor the Federal Reserve Bank that determines the production of coins.

San José, CA – On Monday, February 3, after a drop in U.S. stocks, President Trump relented and paused his 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico for 30 days. Stocks bounced back, recovering most of their initial losses.

San José, CA – On Saturday, February 1, Trump continued his flurry of executive orders, this time targeting trade with Mexico, Canada and China. Unlike Trump’s first term in office, where he targeted imports of intermediate goods - that is, manufactured goods that are used to make other goods, like steel - these are broad tariffs covering all goods, from raw material like crude oil, to intermediate goods, to final goods that are sold to consumers, like cell phones.

San José, CA – With just one day to go before the federal government runs out of funding, President-elect Donald Trump, with the help of billionaire Elon Musk, derailed a bipartisan agreement to keep the government running through March. This plan would have also added billions of dollars in disaster relief aid to help pay for the damage from hurricanes Helene and Milton earlier this year.

San José, CA – On Friday, December 6, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the survey of households showed that the unemployment rate for November 2024 increased to 4.2%, from 4.1% in October. This continued the trend of higher unemployment since bottoming out in April of 2023 at 3.4%.

San José, CA – On Wednesday, November 13, the Department of Labor’s monthly report on inflation showed that the increase in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, ticked to 2.6% measured on a year-to-year basis, which smooths out monthly spikes or plunges. The so-called “core” rate of inflation, which leaves out food and energy prices (which tend to vary more than other prices month to month), was an even higher 3.3% measured year over year.

San José, CA – On Friday, November 1, the Department of Labor published its report on new job creation and unemployment for October. While the unemployment rate showed little change, the report on net new job creation came in far below what was expected and was the lowest number since the recession year of 2020.

San José, CA – On Friday, September 13, the Biden administration announced a further escalation of the U.S. trade war with China. Tariffs—taxes on imports—of electric cars from China will be increased to 100%. This is meant to protect legacy U.S. auto makers from competition from Chinese electric vehicle or EV manufactures.

San José, CA – On Wednesday, August 21, the U.S. Department of Labor released an initial estimate reducing the number of net new jobs created from April 2023 to March 2024 by 818,000, or about 28%. This is the biggest adjustment since 2009, the year after the Great Financial Crisis. The adjustment was about five times as big as previous years’ adjustments.

San José, CA – Average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation, fell in July despite a drop in inflation. While average hourly wages outpaced inflation by one-tenth of one percent, or 0.1% ,in July, the average work week fell by three-tenths of one percent, or 0.3%. This meant the average weekly real earnings, which takes into account wage increases, inflation and the average number of hours worked, actually fell by two-tenths of one percent, 0.2%.